6-1 STRIKE LANDS DAQMAN 50 POINTS: Daqman’s pin-up girl among trainers for many years, Venetia Williams, landed him a Fortune Cookie and a 50-point bull’s-eye bet in the space of 35 minutes at Sandown yesterday, so that he finished well in front on a trappy day when an 18-1 outsider won the Irish Gold Cup and the first six Dublin Festival favourites were beaten.
WON 6-1 GREEN BOOK (Bull’s-eye bet to win 50 points)
WON 8-13 L’HOMME PRESSE (Fortune Cookie)
HE HAS 26-14 LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: Green Book’s victory at Sandown sent Daqman 26-14 up on Pricewise in their value challenge. Today’s toe-to-toe tipping duel is at Leopardstown and Musselburgh. Headlines:
CAPODANNO’S VALUE AT 9.0
GUINNESS: POUR IT ON LATE
BETDAQ 8.4 ‘FAKIR’ FANCIED
HONEYSUCKLE STILL SWEET
CHAMPAGNE ON ICE AT 30.0
14.0 BIG FOR THE GALLOPER
⭕ 12.45 Leopardstown The second day of the Dublin Festival looks as tricky as yesterday was, even for those who followed Willie Mullins: they needed 19 bets to trap four winners, three of them short prices.
Don’t listen to stable gossip or trainers’ forecasts. It had me backing Bronn when a dark horse from the yard, Minella Cocooner, won at 11-1.
What could you make of Gordon Elliott’s prediction that the 18-1 (from 40-1) Conflated would ‘either win or pull up.’ Those lucky enough to be ‘on’, had plenty of time to lay off on BETDAQ, as he struck the front three out.
In this second-day starter, eight out of 10 winners in the decade carried 10st 11lb or less. The last two to score afterwards finished first and second in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham as their follow-up target race.
Have a pinsticker’s bet by all means but your most important task here is to check out the going which might well have turned soft by now.
⭕ 1.20 Leopardstown (Novice Chase) Four of the eight runners are trained Willie Mullins, who is going for a hat-trick in the race after Faugheen and Monkfish.
He has Galopin Des Champs, returning to roughly the course and distance – it’s another half furlong – of his 22-lengths demolition job in Christmas week.
Stablemate Capodanno, a fine big horse, got within five lengths of Bob Olinger at Punchestown. Compare with Master McShee’s 16-lengths third to Bob Olinger earlier at Punchestown.
Both Galopin Des Champs and Capodanno (BETDAQ 9.7 this morning) are six-year-olds and can improve over the eight-year-olds, who are looking exposed.
⭕ 1.50 Leopardstown (Dublin Chase) Chacun Pour Soi is on a hat-trick in this before Honeysuckle’s own treble bid later on today, but he ran flat behind Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek (Captain Guinness third).
It was Chacun’s first run back but he hasn’t had trouble starting his season before, and had never been out of the frame in his nearly three years in Ireland.
Greaneteen himself was put in his place by Shishkin in the Desert Orchid Chase at Christmas and the better ground he wanted here may have been lost by showers that have followed the excessive watering in response to criticism of the surface in recent years.
With doubts about the front two, deadly jumper Captain Guinness – open to improvement at age seven – could change Henry De Bromhead’s luck. Guinness may play a waiting game, then pour it on late!
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 7.4 Captain Guinness
⭕ 2.25 Leopardstown Chase Only two winners of this in the decade have carried more than 10st 8lb.
I fancied super-consistent The Shunter, in the first four in all four festivals of Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown and Galway last Spring and summer.
But he’s climbed almost a stone since Cheltenham and is giving 16lb here to Fakir d’Alene (BETDAQ 8.4), who is clearly a big improver, two years younger.
Birchdale was sixth here in the big 3m chase at Christmas but there hasn’t been a penny for him since he left Nicky Hendersons’s and his hurdles overrating is based on a small-field novice trial at Cheltenham three years ago. No wonder his modest chase form has failed to catch up on it.
Similarly, Blackbow was given a huge chase mark because of his third in the Irish Arkle at this meeting last year.
⭕ 3.00 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Hurdle) See Friday form preview.
Honeysuckle, still only eight and unbeaten in 13 hurdle races, is champion at Cheltenham, Punchestown and here at Leopardstown.
She seems to have frightened off any viable opposition (if any could be found!) in bidding for an Irish Champion Hurdle hat-trick today but yesterday’s Gold Cup win by a handicapper might frighten off those who fancy her for a ‘mortgage job.’
The punter’s loss for seeing stars like Honeysuckle on their pedestal is having to endure not only short prices but small fields.
Zanahiyr, the best juvenile hurdler of last season, and improving further with every start, has almost a stone to find on the ratings combined with the favourite’s mares’ allowance.
But he is the only other CD winner in the race and his form on soft is 1111, and is the alternative at 7.6 on BETDAQ if anything (be)falls Honeysuckle.
Danny Mullins stole the novice hurdle yesterday with an outsider at 11-1 and there’s 96.0 about his mount here: Heaven Help Us, he could create a mares one-two today!
⭕ 4.10 Leopardstown Another pinsticker’s race but with some stats pointers that might help us hit the target: no winning favourites; 9-10 carrying below 11st and 8-10 aged six or seven.
Hidden-horse Sea Ducor, well supported last night, is from the right stable for a race like this and, if you ignore his last two runs, brings a second to Master McShee and victory over Galopin Des Champs to the table.
Suprise Package came to form over today’s CD at Christmas when runner-up to Brides Hill, who was hit with a stone rise by an impressed handicapper.
Drop The Anchor and Champagne Gold were first and second in today’s race a year ago, with Champagne Gold – who returns to hurdles from chasing – 11lb better off.
BETDAQ value 8 Sea Ducor, 17.0 Suprise Package, 30.0 Champagne Gold
⭕ MUSSELBURGH I’m trying to cover my small-stakes speculative bets today with the nap on Since Day One (2.05), who has been winning for Donald McCain and Brian Hughes as if something special. BETDAQ 3.0.
Charles Byrnes puts up jockey-of-the-moment Adam Wedge on his bottomweight, The Big Galloper (2.40), at BETDAQ 14.0 this morning.
1.20 Leopardstown (win 12)
BET 1.25pts win CAPODANNO
1.50 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win CAPTAIN GUINNESS
2.05 Musselburgh (win 12, nap)
BET 6pts win SINCE DAY ONE
2.25 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win FAKIR D’ALENE
2.40 Musselburgh (win 20)
BET 1.5pts win THE BIG GALLOPER
3.00 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win ZANAHIYR
4.10 Leopardstown (win 50 and win 30 twice)
BET 3pts win SUPRISE PACKAGE
BET 1pts win CHAMPAGNE GOLD
BET 4.25pts win SEA DUCOR
4 x 1pt win trebles
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
SINCE DAY ONE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.