ANOTHER FOUR NAPS UP IN A WEEK: Four winning naps out of seven! That’s Daqman’s current tally (57%) after another strike yesterday at 2-1 to show a profit on the day for Monday of 4.60 points.
✅ WON 2-1 YOU WEAR IT WELL (Monday nap)
✅ WON 10-11 EDWARDSTONE (Saturday nap)
✅ WON 6-4 PONT AVEN (Wednesday nap)
✅ WON 11-10 HOMETOWN HERO (Tuesday nap)
NATIONAL WEIGHTS DAY: Attention swings from Cheltenham to Aintree, with the Grand National weights due out today. Daqman checks out the ratings.
I don’t listen to outside noise. That assertion from BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood sets alight the annual controversy over the Grand National weights, which will be published today.
Last year 169-rated Bristol De Mai was let into the Aintree marathon on 167 for a weight mark of 11st 10lb.
Tiger Roll, a pound behind Bristol De Mai on the original ratings at 168, was duly put in a pound behind at the weights (11st 9lb), despite pressure on the handicapper to cut him some slack.
The horse had lost his first chance of a hat-trick in the race when the 2020 renewal was abandoned because of the pandemic. Now his connections ruled him out of 2021 because they wanted less weight.
What mark will he get today in his bid for a third win in a third-time-lucky final try?
Can he now come back and win as a 12-year-old after a two–year gap? Red Rum did exactly that, despite being made to carry 11st 8lb.
This time around Martin Greenwood’s first headache is that the two top-rated on his list, Galvin (167) and Conflated (166), are young horses – both eight – come to hand this season.
Last year’s winner and third, Minella Times and Any Second Now, have been hiked 12lb to 158 and 5lb to 157 respectively. Burrows Saint (fourth) has the same mark as last year.
But those ratings are the current general assessment; for the National it’s the same question of whether the handicapper wants to accept that current mark or give any of them a bit of help.
Tiger Roll? On the face of it, he’s lost his form. On the face of it, the current 155 mark to which he has plummeted gives him the treble chance connections craved.
Or would you rate him on his last successful performance: off 166, beating Easysland (167) 18 lengths in the Cheltenham Festival Cross–Country last March? Maybe you’d conflate the two!
RATINGS of last 10 Grand National winners: 156, 157, 137, 143, 160, 148, 148, 150, 159, 146.
LEADING current ratings of this year’s entries: 167 Galvin, 166 Conflated, 160 Chantry House, 159 Easysland, 158 Franco de Port, Minella Times and Run Wild Fred, 157 Any Second Now and Lostintranslation, 156 Burrows Saint, 155 Fiddlerontheroof and Tiger Roll.
⭕ 1.00 Lingfield It could well be on the heavy side of heavy at Lingfield this afternoon for their National Hunt card. Clerk of the course George Hill tweeted earlier that there are still some small areas of standing water but the course remains raceable. I’m looking for a horse named ‘Mudlark’ but in the absence of one will settle for one that acts like one.
Tokyo Live showed ability on heavy ground in France and when it’s heavy there it is exactly what it says on the tin. His fourth at Dieppe last season (hurdles, 2m 1f) on heavy proved he can handle conditions and could be interesting on his first handicap start for Venetia Williams.
The downside is he was really disappointing on stable debut at Exeter when dropping right out of it to be beaten 65 lengths. He just dropped out from three out but could well have been in need of the race and will be better suited by the more testing surface today.
He is preferred to the morning BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE favourite Stanley Pincombe who is another handicap debutant but has yet to encounter heavy ground.
⭕ 1.55 Ayr It’s also heavy at Ayr today and that shouldn’t trouble Irish raider The Flier Begley who had enough ability to finish third to a subsequent Grade 1 winner over hurdles in Ginto on his bumper debut at Navan.
He has run well since in bumpers too and made a pleasing hurdling debut back at Navan when fourth having looked booked for first or second approaching the last. With normal improvement he should prove hard to beat here.
Both Charm Offensive and Geordies Dream help make the market for me but the former looks to have had her limitations exposed and the latter has no experience yet on the ground.
⭕ 6.45 Newcastle Dusky Prince seemed to improve for the first time cheekpieces when third at Lingfield last time out. He was doing his best work at the end and only beaten three quarters of a length. The handicapper has given him a chance keeping him on the same mark of 70.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 1.9pts win TOKYO LIVE (1.00 Lingfield)
BET 8.9pts win (nap) THE FLIER BEGLEY (1.55 Ayr)
BET 5.0pts win DUSKY PRINCE (6.45 Newcastle)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.