VALUE BETS: DAQMAN 10, PRICEWISE 9: Daqman starts the Chester meeting today 10-9 up on Pricewise, with a profit of 64 points since the start of the Flat. Look out for Hidden Horses, backed each-way; just five so far, including:
WON (2nd 14-1) INTELLOGENT (beaten a short-head): 18.0 on BETDAQ
WON 22-1 BELLOCCIO (Rosebery Handicap)
WON (2nd 18-1) ECHOES IN RAIN (Punchestown Champion Hurdle): 32.0 BETDAQ
WON (2nd 33-1) PROSPEROUS VOYAGE (Newmarket 1,000 Guineas)
TRIALS ENABLE CLASSIC WINNERS PICK: Daqman celebrates the mighty Enable – spotted on this day – as we enter two weeks of Derby and Oaks trials from Chester through Lingfield to York. Daqman builds up his Fortune Cookies, week on week.
As I was saying only yesterday.. Hype, before and after a race, can take your eye off the ball and blow your cash.
So how glad was I on this day in 2017 that no one seemed particularly excited (except yours truly) by the Cheshire Oaks performance of Enable, at least not enough to totally crunch her Oaks price which was still 6-1 on the day.
Fortune Cookies then followed her to 11 successive wins but, when we check out the same Chester trial later today, we will need to find similar qualities before we grab a bet on the Oaks.
If results around Enable in the last decade are any guide, we must look very carefully indeed.
Before Enable, you have to go back to Light Shift (2007 Cheshire Oaks and Epsom Oaks winner) and, after Enable, you will find only a subsequent Ribblesdale winner.
With the exception of Ruler Of The World (2013), the winner of the Chester Vase, also run today, has earned little or no Derby accolades, though again it’s what you see in the race that matters: so it was that the 2017 runner-up, Wings Of Eagles, closing near the finish, would step up and win at Epsom.
Meantime, US Army Ranger (2016) and Sir Dragonet (2019) would be two of the biggest Derby stumers, both trained incidentally by Aidan O’Brien.
Both were beaten as favourite at Epsom; both failed to win another race in England or Ireland, though Sir Dragonet was too good for the lower-quality Aussie horses later in the year.
⭕ 2.40 Cheshire Oaks The draw is a deciding factor at Chester: five of the last seven winners of this came out of stalls 1, 2, 3. Five runners today have already finished first or second this season.
The filly that fits both stats is Makeinmedoit, though it was only a modest maiden she won at Bath on the last day.
The one that can defy the draw is Night Battle (BETDAQ 4.5) out of gate six; slowly away at Lingfield, she bolted through the field late on, finding several gears.
Moon De Vega (BETDAQ 11.0), out of the one stall, is with a stable that does so well with fillies and already has a top three-year-old player in the Guineas runner-up, Prosperous Voyage, so knows the time of day in more ways than one.
Above The Curve and Thoughts Of June were one-two in a solid Leopardstown maiden (third and fifth have both won since).
The Enable stable is not a hot one so far this season but, like them all in this field, Morning Poem is well bred and can only improve.
⭕ 3.10 Chester Vase Aidan O’Brien has won six out of the last eight with, on the one hand, US Army Ranger, the Derby second (to Harzand), who would lose 13 consecutive races, four as favourite, and on the other, Rule Of The World, who would win at Epsom, though it wasn’t the greatest Derby field in modern times.
The draw won’t count for much here. Jockey tactics might. If I were riding Changingoftheguard (god forbid!) I would try to upset the odds-on favourite, Godolphin’s Derby fancy New London, by setting the pace round the Chester bends, poaching a lead and forcing him to challenge wide.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 4.5 Changingoftheguard
⭕ 1.30 Chester One or both of Glorious Angel in this 2yo race and Ever Given in the sprint (2.40) could make Hugo Palmer’s first appearance on his new local track a winning one.
Glorious Angel is by the precocious Cotai Glory, who won the Molecomb as a juvenile, and was prepped for this at Nottingham 18 days back. The runner-up that day ran last week and trotted up four lengths and more. BETDAQ 11.0.
⭕ 3.40 Chester Low numbers do best (unless the ground rides soft), and Ever Given (BETDAQ 4.0) is ready-made for this track.
Though he goes with the pace, he was able to take charge of a 7f handicap on this course and do just enough to fend off any challengers.
Since then he’s won twice more. Both races were in a grade higher than today and he was beaten only a neck (also class 2) at Doncaster off today’s mark.
Pocket The Profit, from the 1,000 Guineas winning yard of George Boughey, has had two races this year, one win, again proving his preference for cut in the ground. So, too, Tolstoy.
Auditor’s sprint form is at 5f. Golden Warrior is well bred for this but the Marco Botti stable is currently 0-14.
⭕ 5.50 Gowran Park Tough-as-teak mare Mighty Blue was asked to win this last year after finishing third in the Dawn Run novice hurdle at Cheltenham. She is here for a repeat after a similar gruelling path to the Flat this Spring, and has the soft ground she needs.
Her Gowran winning jockey is back on board today, and the field contains last year’s losers, Lismore (second), Yaxeni (third), Barrington Court (fifth) and Tashi (sixth).
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 8.6 Mighty Blue
1.30 Chester (win 10)
BET 1pt win GLORIOUS ANGEL
2.40 Chester (win 12, win 10)
BET 3.25pts win NIGHT BATTLE
BET 1pt win MOON DE VEGA
3.10 Chester (win 10)
BET 3pts win CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
3.40 Chester (win 15 nap)
BET 5pts win EVER GIVEN
5.50 Gowran Park (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win MIGHTY BLUE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.