DAQMAN: 11 WINNING DAYS OUT OF 12: Daqman is quickly back to winner-a-day mode after his sequence ended on 10 consecutive days. He missed out on Monday but landed his nap yesterday, Storm Castle (WON 11-8), which gave him a Tuesday profit.
IRISH OAKS ABC FORM AND RATINGS: Today Daqman previews the Irish Oaks with a form and ratings guide to Saturday’s probables, led in ABC order by the filly they call Friends Forever.
⭕ 3.45 the Curragh, Saturday (Irish Oaks) STATS: only 30% of favourites win this; 60% are drawn 1, 2 or 3. TRAINERS: Aidan O‘Brien 9, Ed Dunlop 3, John Gosden 3, Alain de Royer-Dupre 2, Sir Michael Stoute 2. JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori 5, Ryan Moore 2.
RATINGS ABC guide:
103 CAIRDE GO DEO (‘Friends Forever’). Runner-up to History at the Curragh as a 2yo, before – tenderly handled – sixth of eight in the Moyglare. Listed third at Navan first run back (Tranquil Lady fourth); then easily won 1m 5f Listed on same course before clever winner of King George V Cup at Leopardstown last month (in slow time).
101 EMILY DICKINSON Fifth in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (slow away) but best run when stepped up to 1m 6f at Leopardstown only nine days before Saturday’s race: beaten a short-head in the Stanerra Stakes (Group 3); strong challenge, just held.
117 EMILY UPJOHN Unbeaten, including Musidora Stakes by more than five lengths, until – stumbled start, lost many lengths – just failed, by a short-head, to catch Tuesday in the Epsom Oaks. Emily Upjohn is a FORTUNE COOKIE.
091 FENNELA Sixth behind Emily Dickinson in April, winning her maiden over the Curragh CD in first-time cheekpieces.
104 HISTORY Won fillies’ Group 3 (1m) at Leopardstown before seventh – six lengths behind Tuesday – in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and third in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot (see Magical Lagoon and Show Of Stars).
109 MAGICAL LAGOON Curragh Group-3 (1m) winner as a 2yo but only seventh of nine to Inspiral in the Fillies Mile. Gamely won the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, first run over 1m 4f, more than three lengths in front of History (third).
090 PEROTAN Daughter of Churchill, won going away from big-field maiden at Bellewstown on the soft on July 1; impressive.
098 SHOW OF STARS Dundalk AW winner as a 2yo; kept on, fourth behind History, in Group-3 fillies (1m) at Leopardstown but disappointing since, beaten at short prices the last twice.
117 TUESDAY Placed in both English and Irish 1,000 Guineas before just held on from fast-finishing Emily Upjohn in the Epsom Oaks, with French Oaks winner Nashwa (not clear run) three lengths back in third and Tranquil Lady, hung left, sixth, beaten seven lengths.
101 TOY Has always raced with cut in the ground, including second twice at the Curragh; led until lost position, 11th (beaten 4.5 lengths) in the French 1,000 Guineas, and 12th (short-lived effort two out) in the French Oaks behind Nashwa.
107 TRANQUIL LADY Winner of the Blue Wind at Naas (yielding-soft) but only sixth (see Tuesday and see also Cairde Go Deo) in the Epsom Oaks and eighth in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh.
⭕ 6.40 Killarney (Cairn Rouge Stakes Listed) By far the best race on a day where it is again (low) quantity over quality – just look at the field sizes at Brighton this afternoon 🙁
Cigamia has to be the form call here as she comes into this on the back of an excellent fourth to Heredia in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot. That was her first start on quick ground so there’s a tick in that box (it’s currently good tonight but could get faster).
She’s surely better than Listed class, judged on earlier season runs in Group 3 company at Leopardstown (5th) and Curragh (2nd).
I’d prefer her trainer Bill McCreery to be in slightly better form but take comfort from the fact that his one winner from last 17 was the only one of that batch who was sent off favourite.
It looks an open market on Betdaq Betting Exchange and Ger Lyons is well represented with Panama Red and Sh Boom who might finish in front of her stablemate – despite what the odds say.
Sh Boom threw in a bad run at the Curragh last time but had previously performed much better there when finishing third to the odds-on Peals Galore in the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes. A reproduction of that effort would get her every chance and at double figure odds will include her in today’s bets.
⭕ 7.50 Yarmouth Spangled Mac is a winner without a penalty given he is running again so quickly after his Kempton win last week and escapes the 2lb rise which is around the corner.
It was only a narrow success but he is still improving and can make it three wins from five runs in this company.
Noya’s only win so far has come on the all-weather but she was a creditable fourth at Newbury last time out and the handicapper has given her a chance off the same mark.
She is preferred to the more exposed Boadicea Belle who completes the trio.
⭕ 8.10 Killarney Unanswered comes into this chasing a hat-trick on the flat or a four-timer if you include his jumps win at Punchestown last time out where he sauntered home by eight and a half lengths.
Back on the flat he’s been given a 9lb hike by the handicapper but you just get the feeling that won’t be stopping him and he remains on a bargain basement figure. He’s clearly a talented horse now that the penny has dropped.
Gordon Elliott is in terrific form and provides the likely danger here with Britzka who lost his way over hurdles a little and showed more enthusiasm when switched back to the flat last time out.
6.40 Killarney (both win 10)
BET 3.8pts win CIGAMIA
BET 0.8pts win SH BOOM
7.50 Yarmouth (win 10, nap)
12.5pts win SPANGLED MAC
8.10 Killarney (win 10)
BET 3.6pts win UNANSWERED
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