PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Friday’s match between SOUTHAMPTON v NORWICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
SOUTHAMPTON V NORWICH
8pm We have a very busy run of Premier League football and the action continues with Friday Night Football as Southampton host Norwich. After working so hard to get out of the relegation zone a few weeks ago, losses to Manchester City and Liverpool, along with other results for the bottom three at the time, means Norwich are right back to where they started and sit at the bottom of the table. Burnley have really put themselves in a great position to stay up after their win over Spurs midweek, and that leaves Norwich and Watford in a very difficult position. Check latest prices on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
Given the fact that Burnley are now three points ahead of Norwich with two games in hand, pretty much every game is a must win game for Norwich now. If they get out of the relegation zone again it would be a small miracle given Everton and Newcastle also have games in hand on Norwich and they are both five points ahead. I’m sure after playing Manchester City and Liverpool, Norwich will welcome the drop in class here and view this as a great chance to pick up some points but Southampton have been in great form lately so it’s hard to see a result here for Norwich.
Southampton have beaten Everton and Spurs recently, and picked up draws against Manchester United and Manchester City. Looking at the stats you can see Southampton were “lucky” to pick up those wins, but you can’t knock them for grinding out a result when up against it to a bigger and better side. Southampton currently sit in mid-table, I suppose you could call them your classic mid-table Premier League side these days, but they move up a few spots on the home form table. They have been rock solid at home this season, and they have created a lot more chances.
Although Norwich went on a good run of results, their performance level never really changed. Apart from the Everton win, who are clearly struggling this season, you can class Norwich as very lucky with their winning run. In their win over Watford and draw with Crystal Palace, both times conceding a bigger xG figure than they created. Everything points to a Southampton win here in my opinion and I would have them shorter than the current 1.59 given the way Norwich have played this season.
Both sides have been involved in games with lots of goals recently, but I wouldn’t quite have over 2.5 goals odds on here. What’s holding me back from backing unders is Norwich giving away a host of chances, and Southampton creating some very good xG figures against Everton and Spurs recently – both times recording an xG of over 2.5 themselves. I would definitely lean towards unders, but Southampton look the value here at 1.59.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Southampton to beat Norwich at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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● Southampton have lost just one of their eight Premier League home games against Norwich (W5 D2), going down 1-0 in January 1994. Saints have won their last three against the Canaries at St Mary’s, netting nine goals in these games.
● Norwich won the reverse fixture against Southampton 2-1 in November, in their first match under Dean Smith. They last did the league double over Saints in the 2007-08 Championship campaign, while they last did so in the top-flight in 1986-87.
● Southampton lost to Norwich earlier this season in the Premier League, with the Canaries sitting bottom of the table – they’ve never lost to the same bottom side twice within the same campaign in the competition. However, they did lose twice to the lowest ranked side in 1993-94, once vs Queens Park Rangers and once vs Swindon Town.
● Having won just one of their first eight Premier League games played on Friday (D2 L5), Southampton have now won three of their last four on this day (D1), including a 3-0 win against Norwich in June 2020.
● Norwich have won two of their last three Premier League games played on a Friday, the same number as they’d managed in their first 14 such matches in the top-flight (W2 D4 L8). They won their last such match 3-0 at Watford last month.
● Southampton have lost just once at home in the Premier League this season and are unbeaten in their last nine at St Mary’s (W4 D5). They last had a longer unbeaten home run in the top-flight between October 2004 and March 2005 (12 games).
● Norwich have had fewer shots on target than any other Premier League side this season (70). Their record of 2.8 shots on target per game is their lowest on record in a single campaign in the competition (since 2004-05).
● Southampton’s Che Adams has been involved in a goal in each of his last three Premier League games, scoring against Tottenham and Manchester United, and assisting against Everton. He’s never registered a goal involvement in four consecutive top-flight appearances before.
● Shane Long scored his first goal in 25 Premier League appearances in Southampton’s 2-0 win against Everton last time out. He last scored in consecutive games in the competition back in April 2019.
● Norwich’s Milot Rashica became the first Kosovan player to score a Premier League goal in their 3-1 defeat against Liverpool last time out. Only Teemu Pukki (6 goals, 1 assist) has been involved in more league goals for the Canaries this season than Rashica (1 goal, 2 assists).