THE STRIKER Sun: Premier League Preview

THE STRIKER Sun: Premier League Preview

Reading Time: 11 mins

SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games including WEST HAM v LIVRPOOL at 4.30pm. All previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.


2pm We have a fascinating Super Sunday in the Premier League from a betting point view as we head into the next International Break. We have pretty much everything you could ask for today on BETDAQ Betting Exchange – short odds favourites, competitive markets and odds on favourites away from home. We have three very big games kicking off at 2pm for the sides involved, and we start with are big favourite of the day as Arsenal host Watford. This is the type of game that Arsenal tend to do very well in. They are always comfortable with home advantage against the average sides – they will have the time and space to play well, but we all know that backing Arsenal comes with a wealth warning and they won’t be for everyone today at 1.41. I have to say, although I wouldn’t back them at those odds I do feel they will win here – they have been putting a few wins together recently and Watford are pretty average.

I feel Arsenal are priced very fairly at 1.41 here, and I wouldn’t be a layer of them either at the odds. They managed a 2-0 win last weekend over Leicester, however the score doesn’t tell the full story. They conceded an xG of 2.10 and they were very lucky to not concede and win the game. Although they have put together an unbeaten run, they have definitely rode their luck at times. They managed a 0-0 draw at Brighton but they deserved to lose that game. Apart from a 5-2 win away to Everton that came from nowhere, Watford have been pretty average lately and they aren’t creating a lot of chances. I feel they will make Arsenal work very hard, but ultimately come up short. This is a game for small stakes for me, but under 2.5 goals looks the value call at 2.44. I can see Arsenal winning 1-0 or 2-0, but I’m surprised to see unders as big as 2.44.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here ->


● Arsenal have won 11 of their 14 Premier League meetings with Watford (D1 L2), scoring at least once every single time they’ve faced the Hornets in the competition.
● Watford have lost six of their seven away Premier League games against Arsenal, with the exception being a 2-1 victory in January 2017.
● Since losing against both West Brom and Newcastle in 2010-11, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 31 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W26 D5). The Gunners have only failed to score in one of those matches, a goalless draw with Middlesbrough in October 2016.
● Arsenal lost their first three Premier League matches but are unbeaten in their seven games since then (W5 D2), last having a longer unbeaten league run between January and March 2020 (eight games). The Gunners are the first Premier League side to lose their first three games and then none of their next seven since Wimbledon in 1996-97 (lost first three, won next seven).
● Watford beat Everton 5-2 in their last away Premier League match and are looking for consecutive away wins in the competition for the first time since September 2017 under Marco Silva. The Hornets’ last five away wins in the Premier League have come under different managers: Javier Gracia, Quique Flores, Nigel Pearson, Xisco and Claudio Ranieri.
● Arsenal have scored the highest proportion of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (75% – 9/12), while Watford have conceded a league-high 10 goals before half-time so far this term.
● Claudio Ranieri has never beaten Arsenal in the Premier League in 11 attempts (D4 L7), losing his last five away league games against the Gunners. Arsenal are the only side Ranieri has faced at least five times in his top-flight managerial career and never beaten.
● Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored six goals in his five Premier League appearances against Watford, netting a brace in both games against the Hornets in the 2019-20 campaign.
● No player has been directly involved in more Premier League goals for Arsenal this season than Emile Smith Rowe (5 – 3 goals, 2 assists). The 21-year-old has scored in his last two Premier League games – only three players aged 21 or younger have ever scored in three consecutive Premier League appearances for the Gunners (Nicolas Anelka, José Antonio Reyes and Cesc Fàbregas).
● Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – who has scored in his last four Premier League appearances at the Emirates – has scored in each of his last six home Premier League matches against newly promoted sides for Arsenal, netting nine goals. He is averaging a goal or assist every 73 minutes against promoted sides in the Premier League (17 goals, 4 assists in 18 games).


2pm A fascinating game. Spurs have had a massive week with the signing of Antonio Conte as their new manager, but perhaps he found out the scale of the task ahead with the 3-2 win over Vitesse in the Europa Conference League on Thursday. The best way of describing Spurs lately is a pantomime and it will be very interesting to see what Conte can do with them. The reality is Spurs have given contracts until 2023 to Mauricio Pochettino, Jose Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo and now Antonio Conte – maybe it’s not the managers fault for what Spurs are going through! To be honest, they should have never sacked Mauricio Pochettino. That was a case of you don’t know what you have until it’s gone. Conte will set the team up well, but he is unlikely to be given much money to spend, and the Top Four have moved to a different level. Spurs’ best hope is Europa League football and perhaps a Cup.

Even though their fan base is disappointed with starting the weekend in 9th, they actually have played worse than that. The xG table put them in 16th after losing to Manchester United last weekend. There’s no doubt that they have had a few lucky results this season. This is a fascinating game because Everton are no world-beaters, but they are a solid side who have been playing solid football. They lost to Wolves last weekend, but they created plenty of chances and played OK. Compare that to Spurs who just rolled over for United – I feel the market is all wrong here and I’m happy to lay Spurs at 2.5. I respect the fact that Conte will improve them, but that will take time and we should have a more open market here with Everton a little shorter and Spurs a little bigger.

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Everton at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here ->


● Everton have won just one of their last 17 Premier League games against Tottenham (D8 L8), beating them 1-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in September last season.
● After losing three consecutive Premier League away games against Everton between January 2011 and December 2012, Spurs are unbeaten in their last eight league visits to Goodison Park (W3 D5).
● Everton have lost nine home league matches in 2021, only ever losing 10 in a calendar year on three previous occasions, doing so in 1929, 1958 and most recently in 1993.
● Tottenham Hotspur have only scored nine Premier League goals in their first 10 games this season, their fewest at this stage of a season since 2013-14 (also nine). Their tally of 103 shots is their fewest after 10 Premier League matches in any season since 2003-04 (when Opta began recording shot data).
● Everton have lost each of their last three Premier League matches, as many as they had in their previous 12 in the competition. They last lost four in a row in the competition in October 2019 under Marco Silva.
● In his previous stint in the Premier League with Chelsea, new Tottenham manager Antonio Conte remained unbeaten against Everton (W3 D1), with his side keeping a clean sheet in all four matches against the Toffees.
● Everton manager Rafael Benítez’s first ever Premier League game was a 1-1 draw against Spurs in August 2004. The Spaniard has lost his last four Premier League games against Spurs, having lost just two of his first 14 against them in the competition (W7 D5).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 11 goals in 12 Premier League appearances against Everton, including five braces. Only Alan Shearer against Leeds (6 braces, 1 hat-trick) has scored multiple goals in more games against a specific opponent in the competition.
● Everton’s Andros Townsend has never scored or assisted in 11 Premier League appearances against former side Tottenham Hotspur, the side he’s faced the most without a single goal involvement. Townsend has been on the losing side in eight of these 11 games against his old club (W1 D2).
● Harry Kane has scored just one goal in nine Premier League appearances this season, his fewest goals across a nine-game span in the top-flight since scoring once in nine games between August and October 2015. He is averaging 2.3 shots per 90 minutes in the league this season, his lowest average in any Premier League season for Spurs in which he’s played more than once.


2pm We finish the 2pm games with another cracker. A fascinating game from a betting point of view, and this should be a pretty even game too. I don’t agree with the odds here however, and Leicester look good value at 2.58. I know that they have had a number of issues this season and they started very slowly, but they have been putting some good performances togethers since beating Manchester United 4-2. They come in without a win in their last two games, but they have actually played excellent football. They lost 2-0 to Arsenal but xG finished 2.10 to 0.93 in Leicester’s favour and they were incredibly unlucky to lose, and then they were very unlucky to only draw in the Europa League on Thursday night. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Spartak Moscow but again bossed the game, xG finished 2.14 to 0.39 to Leicester.

With Leicester creating such a high volume of chances, they are always going to do well against a side like Leeds. It seems like Leeds have gone massively backwards since last season and when you look at the underlining numbers you can see clear issues. They just aren’t creating the same volume of chances as they did last season and they aren’t holding onto the ball like they did. When you take away the possession and chances created, you’re left with the other team attacking and that brings massive issues for Leeds who were never good at the back. Those issues have been highlighted time and time again, and this seems an ideal game for Leicester. They are creating some good chances, and you’re always going to have chances against Leeds – Leicester look a rock solid bet at 2.58.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Leicester to beat Leeds at 2.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here ->


● Leeds are looking to win consecutive league games against Leicester for the first time since December 1999, following their 3-1 win at the King Power Stadium in January.
● Leicester have won four of their last five away league games against Leeds (L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 visits to Elland Road. The Foxes are looking to win three in a row at Leeds for the first time in their history.
● Since Leeds returned to the Premier League, Leicester are the only side to score four goals against them in a league match at Elland Road. In their entire history, Leeds have only conceded four goals in consecutive home games against two opponents: Manchester City in 1957-58 (2-4) and 1958-59 (0-4) and Arsenal in 2002-03 (1-4) and 2003-04 (1-4).
● Leicester have scored in each of their last 12 away Premier League matches (W5 D3 L4), with only Liverpool on a longer current run (15). The Foxes last scored in 13 consecutive away top-flight matches between April and December 1960.
● Leeds are looking to win consecutive league games for the first time this season, though both of their victories so far this term have come against newly promoted sides Watford and Norwich City.
● Leicester have lost seven of their last 14 Premier League games (W5 D2); their previous seven defeats in the competition came over a run of 29 matches.
● Of sides currently in the Premier League, only Watford (20) and Newcastle (10) are on a longer current run without a clean sheet in the competition than Leicester, who have conceded in each of their last nine league games since beating Wolves 1-0 on the opening weekend.
● Leeds are averaging just one goal-per-game in the Premier League this season, down from 1.6 per game last term. The Whites are also averaging over one shot on target per game fewer this season (4.1) than they did in 2020-21 (5.2), while their conversion rate is down from 11.9% to 7.2%.
● As well as scoring 40% of Leeds’ Premier League goals so far this season (4/10), Raphinha has created the most chances (18), had the most shots (32) and completed the most dribbles (26) of any player for the Whites so far this term.
● Sheffield-born Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last five away Premier League appearances in Yorkshire, netting in two games against Huddersfield, two against Sheffield United and one against Leeds. The only away player to score in six consecutive Premier League appearances in Yorkshire is Harry Kane between November 2014 and January 2021.


4.30pm We have a cracker for the main TV slot on Super Sunday as West Ham host Liverpool. These two sides have been fantastic recently, and it will be interesting to see how West Ham measure up to Liverpool. Last season West Ham were very good against the average Premier League side, but they usually came up short against the top sides. They lost here to Manchester United already this season, conceding an xG of 2.13 in a 2-1 loss and it will be interesting to see how they stop Liverpool who have been in sensational form. It was fantastic to land our Max Bet at good odds on West Ham last weekend against Aston Villa, but I actually like Liverpool today at 1.78. Liverpool have been excellent recently, and they are just playing incredible football at the moment. They had Atletico beaten by half-time in the Champions League midweek, and although West Ham are playing well this season they just aren’t on Liverpool’s level.

With both sides laying very impressive attacking football, it’s easy to see why over 2.5 goals is trading 1.55. If that was a little bigger I would be tempted, but the Liverpool bet makes more appeal at 1.78. Liverpool were incredible midweek, creating an xG of 3.67 and could have beat Atletico by the same score line that they beat Manchester United by! Although I feel the Liverpool price offers a lot of value, I am happy to keep staking to three points rather than five, because West Ham have been quality this season – if Liverpool got to 1.85 or bigger, then they would be a Max Bet. I feel they will create more chances than The Hammers here and it’s hard to see how West Ham stop them scoring.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat West Ham at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here ->


● Since doing the league double over Liverpool in 2015-16, West Ham are winless in their last 10 Premier League games against the Reds (D2 L8).
● Liverpool have won four of their last five away league games against West Ham (D1) and are looking to win three in a row at the Hammers for the first time since doing so between 2003 and 2007.
● Only reigning Premier League champions Manchester City (80) and reigning European champions Chelsea (66) have earned more Premier League points in 2021 than West Ham (62). This is already the most points West Ham have won in a single calendar year in the competition.
● Liverpool have scored 19 goals in their first five away Premier League games this season, with only two sides in the history of the top-flight ever scoring more at this stage – Manchester United in 1907-08 and Manchester City in 2011-12 (both 20).
● Since a run of six defeats in seven Premier League games in February and March, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 20 league games (W14 D6), scoring at least once in all 20 games (50 goals in total).
● Liverpool have scored at least three goals in each of their last six away league games, netting 22 goals in total. In the entire history of the Football League, only one team has ever scored three or more times in seven consecutive away league games, with Birmingham City doing so between November 1892 and September 1893 in the second tier.
● West Ham have made the fewest changes to their starting XI in Premier League games this season (4), while no side have used fewer different players than the Hammers (18). Despite this, only Chelsea (15) and Manchester City (11) have had more different goalscorers than David Moyes’ side this term (9).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored nine goals in eight Premier League appearances against West Ham. He could become the seventh player to score 10+ goals against the Hammers in the competition, making them the side against which the most different players have reached double figures.
● Mohamed Salah has scored in each of Liverpool’s first five away Premier League games this season, only the second player to score in his team’s first five games on the road in a season after Thierry Henry in 2001-02 for Arsenal, who failed to score in their sixth. The last player to score in six away top-flight games in a row was Sergio Agüero in August 2017 for Manchester City (seven in a row).
● Michail Antonio has been directly involved in 17 goals in his last 22 Premier League games at the London Stadium for West Ham (11 goals, 6 assists). He is also the top scorer (19) and assister (12) at the London Stadium and is one of three current players to be outright top for both goals and assists at a stadium in the Premier League, along with Jamie Vardy at the King Power and Raúl Jiménez at Molineux.

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