THE ULTRA Sat: Bundesliga/La Liga Preview

THE ULTRA Sat: European Preview

SATURDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Saturday’s top European action with the games between BOCHUM v BAYERN MUNICH, VILLARREAL v REAL MADRID, NAPOLI v INTER MILAN and ATLETICO MADRID v GETAFE all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.


2.30pm We have another top quality Saturday around Europe and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have some fantastic games from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A today with the top teams in action before the Champions League is back next week. We start the day in the Bundesliga as the German Champions are in action as they travel to take on Bochum. It was another excellent weekend last weekend for Bayern Munich as they increased their lead at the top of the table. They are now nine points clear after Dortmund lost to Bayer Leverkusen and although the title race was never really on, it’s effectively over now. This is another topic, but it’s actually such a shame RB Leipzig let Bayern take their manager and best players as Leipzig looked like they were getting close last season. That won’t matter today though, and Bayern have the luxury of resting some players now as they switch their focus to the Champions League – that’s an ideal position for them, and to be honest the odd loss won’t cost them the title from here.

It’s no surprise to see Bayern trading short here at 1.22. Bayern have a reasonably easy tie in the next stage of the Champions League and they are in action on Wednesday, so I can’t see them not naming their strongest XI here. That’s bad news for Bochum, and it’s more a case of how many goals can Bayern score rather than will they win. Bochum have impressed me as they have adjusted well to life in the Bundesliga, but you can’t really look past the gulf in class between the sides. Bochum tend to try and keep games tight but it’s hard to see how they can stop this Bayern side – when you look through the xG figures from Bayern you see figures like 3.04, 5.54, 3.16, 3.69 and 3.73. Those are impressive figures! Bochum have conceded on average an xG of 1.7 per game in the Bundesliga this season, and the 1.55 or thereabouts is very much worth taking on Bayern here. This looks like a one way traffic win for the German Champions.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich -1.5 goals to beat Bochum at 1.55 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->


3.15pm Next we move to La Liga as Villarreal host Real Madrid. While most football fans will just assume this will be a smooth win for Real, this should be a cracking fixture with Villarreal in excellent form at the moment. Villarreal started the season slowly, but they have been in top form recently and recorded a huge win last weekend away to Real Betis. Even in their recent loss away to Elche, they created an xG nearly five times what Elche created and in the 2-2 draw with Atletico Madrid here in January the game finished with an xG of 2.47 to 0.64 to Villarreal. This is going to be a very tough fixture for Real, and Sevilla will dearly be hoping they can drop points after they have thrown away so many chances to close the gap recently. Real start the weekend six points ahead of Sevilla and it’s hard to see past them for the title. They have given Sevilla a few chances recently but the gap as actually got bigger. That doesn’t mean that this fixture won’t be a massive test though, and I can fully understand why we have an open market here.

When you look at the recent Villarreal xG figures you can’t help but be impressed. Since losing to Barcelona they have created xG figures of 1.90, 2.15, 3.11, 3.60, 4.26, 2.47, 1.01, 1.99 and 1.25. They have had unlucky results on this run – they lost 1-0 to Sevilla but they finished with an xG of 1.90 but you couldn’t knock the performance. It’s hard to say a bad thing about Real either, their recent xG figures have been 1.58, 5.24 and 4.05. You could say that they arrive here in peak form, and it’s hard to have a very strong opinion on the match odds market with both sides in such good form. I think from a class point of view Real deserve to be favourites, but you can also fully understand the open market. I feel the best value in this game is in the goals market – both sides have been creating so much recently we’re bound to have a good game here and Both Teams To Score looks the value at 1.66, along with over 2.5 goals at 1.75 – the question is what is the better bet. I can’t see either side running out easy winners here, so Both Teams To Score looks the call at 1.66 in my opinion.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.66 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->


5pm Next we go to Serie A for a massive game between Napoli and Inter Milan. The title race in Italy was blown wide open last weekend as AC Milan beat Inter Milan 2-1. Napoli then won their fixture on Sunday, meaning they sit only one point behind Inter Milan. Although the gap is down to one point, Inter Milan still have a game in hand on Napoli and AC Milan, so when you consider that you have to feel this is a must win game for Napoli. A win for Inter would be a massive setback considering they could make the gap seven points with the game in hand. That being said, I said the same thing about Inter Milan beating AC Milan last weekend and they couldn’t do that. Although I expected Inter to win that game, it does spice up the title race. Napoli come into this fixture off the back of four straight wins and their xG figures have been impressive too. They have controlled their recent games, and they grinded out a nice 1-1 draw with Juventus prior to that run. They were desperately unlucky to lose to Spezia before the Christmas break too, losing 1-0 but creating an xG of 1.76. This will be a massive test for Inter.

It’s no surprise to see an open market here. It’s hard to see past a very close game. I can’t disagree with the market in the sense that Inter should be favourites – they are the best team in Italy after all, however there’s a huge amount in Napoli’s favour here and I feel Inter are a little too short at their current 2.5. Napoli have been fantastic at home this season, and Inter are going to have to be at their best to win here. I know we have an open market, but I would actually price the market more openly! I would have the sides a little closer together, with Inter marginal favourites. They were never really at the races against AC Milan – they only created an xG of 0.95 in a very close game and it was a disappointing performance. They also had to settle for a 0-0 draw in mid-January away to Atalanta, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 or 1-1 here in another very close game. Napoli also drew 1-1 with Juventus in a close game. This is going to be a cagey affair, and I’m happy to lay Inter to have the draw and Napoli on my side.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Napoli at 2.5 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->


8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a brilliant Saturday as Atletico Madrid host Getafe. Make no mistake, this is a must win game for Atletico. They have had a terrible season this time around since lifting the title, but things have got very serious after the weekend’s loss to Barcelona and dropping out of the top four. Whatever about not lifting the title or challenging for the title, missing out on Champions League football would be a disaster. Given all the problems at Barcelona, it now looks like they are finishing the season reasonably strongly so Atletico have to target Real Betis. The good news for Atletico is Real Betis also lost at the weekend, and Atletico have a game in hand on Betis. The problem is they are still four points behind Betis, and they must simply start winning games. I know Atletico have been very unlucky this season – once again they created a bigger xG when losing to Barcelona at the weekend but they really need to stop conceding silly goals and take their chances now.

Creating a bigger xG and losing has been a theme in the season for Atletico. They did the same recently against Granada, Sevilla, Real Madrid and Mallorca. The xG table puts them in second behind Real Madrid, and it would be a total disaster if they couldn’t finish in the top four. They should really beat this Getafe side who have been involved in the relegation battle, but Getafe have put together a very good run of results and they are playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. They have only lost once in their last ten La Liga games and that came against Sevilla. They also beat Real Madrid 1-0 in a very close game! I know Atletico haven’t been playing bad football, they have been pretty unlucky – but you can’t get away from the fact that they keep conceding goals and they look too short here at 1.45. Getafe have put together a nice run and like to keep games as tight as possible. I can see them making life very difficult for Atletico and I’m happy to have a small lay on Atletico at 1.45 from a value point of view.

The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Atletico Madrid to beat Getafe at 1.45 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->

Author: info

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