NATIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s Nations League matches between ARMENIA v REPUBLIC OF IRELAND, HUNGARY v ENGLAND and ITALY v GERMANY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARMENIA V REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
2pm It might be Derby Day at Epsom Downs, but we also have some cracking Nations League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some fascinating ties today, along with very interesting betting heats too. We get underway early as Armenia host the Republic of Ireland in Group B1. Ireland have found things very difficult lately – they barely avoided relegation in the last Nations League, and they never troubled the top sides in their World Cup qualifying Group. They are an average side who create very little, but their manager Stephen Kenny has a huge support base from League of Ireland and he will be given time to change the dynamic. The idea is he is “trying to play football” instead of just putting XI men behind the ball and roofing it up the pitch as Ireland have done in the past. So far this side has had very mixed results – they tend to perform well away from home against the bigger sides who attack them. They can play a counter attacking brand of football and that suits them. However, when they are faced with a side who sit back Ireland really struggle to create chances. They lack a lot of scoring power, and I have to say a lot of Irish fans are even divided on this side. Obviously the core Irish supporters love the manager, but the casual fans still aren’t sold on this side.
This will be a huge Nations League campaign for Ireland in my opinion. In a Group with Ukraine, Scotland and Armenia they will be fancied to at least challenge for top spot. It’s actually hard to believe a side as average as Ireland could end up in an A Group, but anyway. If results don’t go their way here then the manager will no doubt come under pressure from the media. Armenia are an average side too, but given the lack of chances Ireland create they will likely have to work very hard to beat them. Armenia came up from Group C2 in the last Nations League – topping a Group with North Macedonia, Georgia and Estonia in it. They were then overtaken by North Macedonia who finished ahead of them in World Cup qualifying. Let’s not make any mistake here, this will be an average game of football between two very limited sides. You’d have to say that Ireland should be the favourites, but I wouldn’t have them odds on. I expect a closer game than that, and I’m happy to have a small lay on Ireland from a value point of view at 1.95, but anything under 2.04 is value in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Republic of Ireland to beat Armenia at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArmIre
HUNGARY V ENGLAND
5pm Next we go to Group A3 as Hungary host England. This should be an excellent Group as it involved Italy and Germany, who clash later on too. I don’t think you could call this game anything other than a must win game for England if they want to win the Group and get to the Playoffs. England are coming into this tournament off the back of a Euro 2020 Final and then a smooth World Cup qualifying campaign. You can’t really fault this England side looking at the stats – I know the media always give the manager and the team a hard time – but they do get results. You have to respect that. They made the worst of a good Euro 2020 draw, and very nearly won it. We’re used to seeing these sides play each other because they were in the same World Cup qualifying Group. Hopefully we don’t see a repeat of the scenes we saw when Hungary were at home the last time, after a terrible first half from the crowd, England came out in the second half and hammered Hungary 4-0. It seems the fan behaviour just spurred on the England players. Hungary did pick up a draw when the sides met in Wembley later in the Group, but by that stage it looked certain England would top the Group, especially with fixtures against San Marino and Albania after that game. England are a much better side than Hungary, and I feel this is a case of how many goals can England score rather than will they win. The market is confident on an England win, with the away win trading 1.4 at the time of writing.
The big question from a betting point of view here in my opinion is do I take England at 1.4 or look towards the handicap markets. I do believe England are a much better side than Hungary, and although this is generally a tough place to come to in the sense of you get a hard time off the fans, this England side couldn’t have dealt with it better last time. Although the 1.4 is a very tempting bet, the 2.23 on England to cover the 1.5 goal handicap really stands out here. I wasn’t expecting to see that trading odds against, and I’m very happy with the odds. Hungary were in a B Group in the last Nations League, but they had a pretty handy Group with Russia, Serbia and Turkey – three sides who haven’t been at their best in recent times. Serbia improved in the World Cup qualifying but they were poor at the time, and I just can’t see past a smooth England win here. The 2.23 is a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win England -1.5 goals to beat Hungary at 2.23 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HunEng
ITALY V GERMANY
7.45pm We stay in Group A3 to finish the day as Italy host Germany! This should be a cracker, and it’s a real highlight tie. Remember before we had the Nations League, we’d usually see these sides meet in a friendly but it’s a million times better to have some competitive clashes in International football. In that sense the Nations League has been a huge success. Both these sides will have one eye on the England game earlier in the day – as I said all three will see beating Hungary as a must if they are going to top the Group and get to the latter stages. Italy are looking to re-build as they dust themselves off after losing out in the World Cup Playoffs. It was a poor performance all around from Italy – they had home advantage against Switzerland in their second last game but could only draw, and then could only manage a 0-0 draw away to Northern Ireland in their final game with top spot on the line. Talk about fluffing your lines, but then it got worse – they got beaten by North Macedonia in one of the most embarrassing defeats in International football over the last few years. They might have missed out on the World Cup because they would have had to play Portugal after, but to lose to North Macedonia is unforgivable – especially after winning the Euro’s! That’s Italy for you though, they are unpredictable. It will be interesting to see what kind of performances we get from them here because this is a really tough Group. We’ll probably see the best of them.
Germany missed out on the Nations League Semi-Finals last time as they finished second behind Spain in their Group. They have landed another very difficult Group here, but they sailed through World Cup qualifying against average opposition. This will be a better test to see where this German side are at the moment. There’s a lot of questions about both sides heading into this tie, and I can’t wait. We have an open market, but I do disagree with the odds. Germany look a little too short for me at 2.52. I would have Italy a little shorter in the market and Germany a little higher – basically putting the sides more or less around the same odds for an even more open market. This should be a cracking game, and I feel Italy can get a result here with home advantage. We shouldn’t have a real open game, despite all the attacking talent on the pitch, and a small lay on Germany looks a very nice position to be in.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Germany to beat Italy at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ItaGer