THE ULTRA Sun: La Liga / Serie A Preview

THE ULTRA Sun: European Preview

SUNDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Sunday’s top European action with the feature games in the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.


2.30pm We truly have a top quality weekend in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week, and we have a top class Sunday ahead! We have some cracking fixtures from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A again today with some very interesting markets. We kick the day off in the Bundesliga with Union Berlin hosting Dortmund. This might not be a fixture that catches many eyes today because we have Atalanta v Juventus later, but this is a massive game when you look at the Bundesliga table. Perhaps not as massive as it could have been if Dortmund won last weekend – the gap was nine points at the start of this weekend and the title race looks over to be honest. As I said in the Bayern game on Saturday, Bayern can afford a few losses now and still lift the title. This becomes a bigger game for Union Berlin compared to Dortmund as they are locked in a battle for a top four finish and Champions League football.

I know we have had a lot of change in the Bundesliga this season. The likes of RB Leipzig, Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt have been well off the pace. That has left a gap for sides like Union Berlin to make a dart at the top four and European spots in general. Just being in the mix is a nice achievement for Union Berlin, and they are now under immense pressure as RB Leipzig have improved and to be honest, there’s plenty of sides in the race for that fourth spot. This is a game where most people will expect a Dortmund win, but don’t underestimate Union Berlin who have been fantastic this season. Although they lost some momentum and to be honest opened the door for the chasing pack with a 2-0 loss last weekend to Augsburg, they actually played well. They created an xG of 2.19 and they were very unlucky to lose 2-0. In general they have been creating some good chances this season and when you consider how many goals Dortmund have been conceding this season, Dortmund look a little too short at 1.85. The Dortmund lay is obviously a tempting bet, but the standout bet here is over 2.5 goals. Dortmund have been laying such a open game lately it’s hard not to see goals here and the 1.65 looks great value.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->


5.30pm We move to La Liga next as Real Sociedad host Granada. While Sociedad have had a number of disappointing results lately, you can’t fully rule them out of the top four race yet. That being said, they haven’t been going in the right direction and it’s hard to see them actually closing the gap given their recent run. Not only that, but Atletico Madrid fell out of the top four last weekend and they are also battling to get back in. Real Sociedad did basically the same thing last season as they have done this season – start very fast and just fall away as the season goes on. Their main job now will be to hang onto a Europa League spot and they need to start winning games again soon. They have only managed one win in their last nine La Liga games and although they have had to play Real Madrid in that run, their fixture list wasn’t exactly tough. They were hammered by Real Betis and Villarreal who are both having a good season. Although Sociedad have been poor recently, this a fantastic chance to get back to winning ways. Granada are in a relegation battle, and they come into the game in poor form. Before you go lumping on Sociedad though, they did only manage a 0-0 draw with Getafe here at the end of January. I know they created an xG three times what Getafe did, but they still couldn’t find a goal.

Although I think Sociedad will more than likely get the job done here, I have to say that the 1.52 does feel too short. Like I said, their fixture list hasn’t been hugely difficult and they have only recorded one win in nine. That’s not the form of a side I’d want to back at 1.52. I know Granada are a limited side, but they are fighting for their lives and they will likely set out to defend here and get a point. When you consider Sociedad aren’t really scoring goals, it could get very nervous for 1.52 backers. Since drawing 1-1 with Barcelona with a decent performance, Granada have lost their last three which does worry me from a laying Sociedad point of view. That being said, I feel the odds are wrong here and a small lay of Sociedad looks the best option – the 1.52 is just too short in my opinion and I have to lay it from a value point of view.

The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Real Sociedad to beat Granada at 1.52 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->


7.45pm We go to Serie A next for the biggest fixture of the day. Atalanta host Juventus in a top four six pointer! When you look at the table you can’t help but get excited for this fixture. After their worst start to the season for many years, Juventus have made it back into the Champions League spots after their win last weekend over Verona. It was Atalanta who dropped out after a 2-1 loss to Cagliari and although Atalanta have had a reasonably tough run of fixtures lately they have dropped a lot of points. They’ve only managed one win from their last six in Serie A. Despite that poor run, they are only two points behind Juventus and they also have a game in hand. If they can pick up a draw here and win their game in hand, they will be back in the top four, so even a draw would be an acceptable result here. You have to feel that if Juventus win given their momentum at the moment then it’s game over for Atalanta in the race for the top four. So, a lot on the line here and I can’t wait for this fixture.

It’s not a surprise to see a very open market here. This is going to be a very close game, but you have to feel the fixture comes at an excellent time for Juventus. They have some real momentum and they can playing with confidence again. It took them a while to recover from the loss of all those goals from Ronaldo, but they are starting to put the average sides to the sword again. Atalanta were very poor here against Cagliari last weekend and can’t complain with the loss – then they only created an xG of 0.32 against Lazio in a very boring 0-0, also drew 0-0 with Inter Milan here but we won’t complain about that and they were beaten 4-1 by Roma in their home game prior to that. Looking at their recent games, I don’t think home advantage is an advantage for Atalanta and I’m confident on Juventus here. Like I said, this fixture lands at a good time and everything lines up for Juventus. They are grinding out wins and also winning from unlikely positions too – that game against Roma was crazy but it’s a sign they are playing good football and there’s a good feeling within the squad. At 2.58, Juventus are a Max Bet for me.

The Ultra Says:
Five point win Juventus to beat Atalanta at 2.58 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->


8pm We move back to La Liga to finish a brilliant Sunday as Espanyol host Barcelona. I said last week that Espanyol have been involved in a TV slot fixture for most weekends in La Liga, and while this fixture is because of Barcelona, Espanyol are always a good side because you never know what type of performance you get from them. They can be brilliant and they can very average – there’s actually no in between at the moment! Barcelona took all the La Liga headlines last weekend with a 4-2 win over Atletico Madrid – unfortunately for Atletico Madrid it was the same old story for them this season, they created a bigger xG than Barcelona but lost the game. Despite Atletico feeling unlucky last weekend, it continues the current good run of Barcelona and they seem to be heading in the right direction at the moment. It was always going to take time to re-build after what happened in the summer, and it seems (for the moment anyway) that Xavi is the right man for the job.

The good thing about Xavi as manager too is the fans will give him a lot of time, and that’s what Barcelona need. They aren’t just going to rebuild overnight. You still have to remind yourself that they aren’t the Barcelona of old, and when you click into the market it’s obvious when you see their prices. It’s been a case of trying to decide when you back them and when to avoid them, and I feel this is a good time to back them. The 1.8 is good value to beat this average Espanyol side who have been very hit-and-miss this season. Real Betis were all over them before the winter break here, and even Elche were able to beat them although Espanyol did create a marginally higher xG. Barcelona still have a lot of work to do, but they are improving each week in my opinion and they are worth backing at 1.8. I’m still happy to keep stakes reasonably limited however, it will be a while before we can fully trust this Barcelona side again.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Barcelona to beat Espanyol at 1.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!

You can view all markets here ->

Author: info

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