WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between MALLORCA v REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga) and VALENCIA v ATHLETIC BILBAO (Copa Del Rey) both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MALLORCA V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We have a big night in Spain on Wednesday with La Liga and Copa Del Rey action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the evening in La Liga with Mallorca hosting Real Sociedad. This is a massive game for both sides when you look at the table for different reasons. Real Sociedad are still chasing a European spot and they start this game sitting in seventh but they are just one point behind Villarreal and four points behind Atletico Madrid. It’s going to be very tough for them given the quality in front of them but all they can do is keep trying. For Mallorca, they are in danger of getting into a relegation fight but thankfully for them a couple of points would put some distance between themselves and the bottom three. It’s dangerous times though, and they can’t afford to go on a losing run at the moment. Mallorca have adjusted to life in La Liga pretty well this season – they were always going to be hanging around their current position, and their major problem has been going forward this season. They have scored less than one goal per game in La Liga this season, but the positive news is that they have actually created a better xG figure than that.
Real Sociedad recorded a much needed win at the weekend at home to Osasuna and they put in a good performance too. They controlled the game very well and only conceded an xG of 0.43. I feel they definitely need that win after getting knocked out of the Europa League by RB Leipzig and then their current poor run in La Liga. That win over Osasuna means they have won three of their last six La Liga games which is a big improvement given they only won once in eight games prior to this run. They have come up very short against the top sides, but Mallorca are a big drop in class compared to Villarreal, Real Betis and Real Madrid for example. Real Sociedad look priced pretty fairly here at 2.32 and I don’t see any value in the match odds market. I can see a very tight game here and under 2.5 goals stands out at 1.69. As I highlighted above, Mallorca haven’t scored many goals this season and Sociedad have been banging in goals for fun recently while not creating a huge amount of chances either. I can see Sociedad grinding out a win, but this will be a low scoring game in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMalSoc
VALENCIA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8.30pm Next we move to the Copa Del Rey as we kick off the second legs of the Semi-Final. Valencia host Athletic Bilbao and this tie is perfectly poised at 1-1 after the first leg, and Valencia will be pretty confident going into this game with home advantage. That being said, Athletic Bilbao are a fantastic Cup side so I expect this to be a cracking tie! We have a very open market here with both sides priced very close together. To be honest it’s hard to see anything bar a close game here, there’s definitely not going to be much in this and it’s going to be a nervy fixture too. There’s so much on the line for both these sides as a Copa Del Rey final would make their season. They will also fancy their chances of winning the competition given Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are already out. What can you say about Athletic Bilbao in the Copa? They are different gravy! They have been in the last two finals, and they knocked Barcelona and Real Madrid out on the way to this Semi-Final. They would have been disappointed to only draw the first leg with home advantage and now they have work to do. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see another draw here – both sides sit beside each other in the La Liga table and as I said above, it’s hard to see anything bar a very close game.
Athletic Bilbao have had an up-and-down run in to this fixture. They lost 4-0 to Barcelona at the weekend but they beat Real Sociedad 4-0 the week before that! As I said in my preview of the Barcelona game, I expected Bilbao to have an eye on this fixture at the weekend. It’s hard to actually judge them because they are a different side in the Cup and really up their level. Valencia also conceded four goals to Barcelona recently, and although they grinded out a 1-0 win over Mallorca at the weekend they didn’t play too well. They conceded an xG of 1.91 and didn’t play well – I feel this fixture lands at a bad time for Valencia because their xG figures haven’t been good recently. They seem to be really struggling up front – they have created xG figures of 0.43, 0.93, 1.27, 1.11, 0.71 and 0.82 recently. I know we have an open market here and a close game is expected, but I feel Bilbao offer the value at 2.78 and I’m happy to back them to turn on the style in the Cup again.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Valencia at 2.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQValAth