THE ULTRA Weds: Champions League Preview


CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s Champions League semi-final second leg between REAL MADRID v MANCHESTER CITY including a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.


8pm It’s nights like this that make the Champions League the superb competition it is! The eyes of the sporting world will tune in to Madrid on Wednesday night as Real Madrid host Manchester in the second leg of their Champions League Semi-Final. We saw a dramatic first leg with Manchester City coming out on top 4-3, we had lots of big swings in the in-play betting on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and hopefully we see more drama here! Although City take a one goal lead into this tie, Real Madrid won’t be unhappy after the first leg. I would suggest they would have shaken on being one goal behind after the first leg away from home considering how strong City have been this season.

Having said that, I said the same about Atletico Madrid when they played the first leg away from home and lost to City by one goal too. Saying “you would take a one goal loss” in the first leg is fine, but actually beating City in the second leg is easier said than done! Real Madrid took a 3-1 lead into the second leg against Chelsea here too and found themselves needing extra time to get through. It’s hard to not see a lot of goals again – I felt prior to the first leg that it might be a little cagey with Real hoping for a quiet game but it turned out to be a mental game. Obviously the early City goals really opened things up, but we should see another very open game here.

Prior to the first leg, this was the leg that I expected fireworks in. City won’t sit back here just because they lead; it’s just not in their nature. Real will have to chase the game, and that also plays into the hands of City. It’s really hard not to see a lot of goals here, but the market is expecting that too – over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.56. I would suggest that there’s still some value in that price, and Both Teams To Score isn’t a bad bet either at around about the same odds. We really should see goals here.

While I couldn’t put anyone off over 2.5 goals, my bet here is City at 2.12. City banged in another four goals at the weekend, as did Real Madrid when they confirmed their La Liga title win at the weekend, but City have been a better side this season in my opinion and they were the better side in the first leg too. I believe Real were a little lucky to get within one goal of City, and given the fact that they have to go chasing this game that will just open up space for City to counter. While Real have been pretty good this season, they haven’t been at their absolute best – they have been handed a La Liga title without any opposition given the lack of quality in the other sides this season.

They were poor in the second leg against Chelsea here, and City are a few levels above Chelsea too. I am very confident on the City win here, but I won’t be having a Max Bet just purely because City have the lead. If I was having a Max Bet, I’d want to see City chasing the game with 15 minutes left if the sides were level but they don’t need to do that here. I think we’ll see a lot of goals and the game will be won by the last 15 minutes anyway, but a three point bet on City feels right at the odds. I would have them closer to 2.0.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Real Madrid at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


● The first leg between Manchester City and Real Madrid was only the second semi-final first leg in UEFA Champions League history to see seven goals scored, along with Liverpool 5-2 Roma in 2017-18. Only two semi-finals have seen 10 or more goals scored over the two legs: Juventus 6-4 Monaco in 1997-98 and Liverpool 7-6 Roma in 2017-18.
● Manchester City have won their last three UEFA Champions League matches against Real Madrid; only two sides have ever won four in a row against them in European competition, with Ajax doing so between 1973 and 1995 and Bayern Munich between 2000 and 2002.
● Manchester City have progressed in nine of the previous 10 UEFA Champions League two-legged knockout ties when they’ve won the first leg, only failing in the Last 16 vs Monaco (5-3 first leg, 1-3 second leg).
● Real Madrid have been eliminated in all five previous UEFA Champions League semi-finals when they’ve lost the first leg; however, they have progressed from two of their last three knockout ties when losing the first leg, in the 2015-16 quarter-final vs VfL Wolfsburg and this season’s Last 16 vs Paris Saint-Germain.
● Should Manchester City qualify for the UEFA Champions League final, they will have done so in consecutive seasons, having lost 1-0 to Chelsea in last season’s final. They’ll be the fourth English side to reach consecutive European Cup/Champions League finals, after Liverpool (1977/1978, 1984/1985, 2018/2019), Manchester United (2008/2009) and Nottingham Forest (1979/1980).
● Real Madrid have lost their last two UEFA Champions League matches and have only lost three in a row once before, doing so between February and October 2020, a run which included two defeats to Man City. Current manager Carlo Ancelotti has never lost three matches in a row in the Champions League, with this match his 178th in the competition.
● Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior has created 28 chances in open play in the UEFA Champions League this season, the most by a player since Dusan Tadic in 2018-19 (36) and most by a Los Blancos player since 2010-11 (Mesut Özil, 32). He has also has six open play assists, including four at the Bernabéu: since 2003-04, the only player with more than six in a season is James Milner in 2017-18 for Liverpool (7).
● Kevin De Bruyne has 18 UEFA Champions League assists for Manchester City, the most of any player and behind only Neymar (25) and Kylian Mbappé (20) in the competition since his debut for City in September 2015. De Bruyne scored and assisted in the first leg, one of only two occasions he’s done so in the UEFA Champions League – the other was at the Bernabéu vs Real Madrid in February 2020.
● Man City’s Pep Guardiola has won four UEFA Champions League matches against Real Madrid, with only Ottmar Hitzfeld winning more (7). Two of his wins over Madrid have come at the Bernabeu (2011 with Barcelona, 2020 with Man City) and he could become the first manager to win three away from home there.
● Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema has scored nine UEFA Champions League goals in the knockout stages this season, with only Cristiano Ronaldo in 2016-17 (10) ever scoring more in a single season. Benzema could become the fourth player to score in both legs of the quarter-final and semi-final in a season, after Fernando Morientes (2003-04, Monaco), Neymar (2014-15, Barcelona) and Edin Dzeko (2017-18, Roma).

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