BETDAQ MAKES THE VALUE HEADLINES: Daqman finds value for money in BETDAQ offers on Day 1 at the Epsom Derby meeting: 6.2, 6.4, 7.3, 8.6, 9.7, 10.5, 10.5, 14.0. Check out his guides to the Oaks and Coronation Cup earlier in the week. Today’s headlines:
FRANKIE UP FOR ANOTHER OAKS
PRAISE CAN SCORE ON STAMINA
EXCEL FOR HOLLIE POWER DRIVE
HIGH TIME FOR MOORE WINNER
JOHNSTON HAS GOLDEN CHANCE
DAQMAN CLASSIC CHALLENGE AT 26-17: Daqman who passed a 1,000 winners against Pricewise last weekend, is 26-17 in front this season showing a profit of 187.50 points to level stakes.
⭕ 4.30 Epsom (The Oaks): See Monday’s ABC Guide in the Daqman Archive.
DRAW: winners by stall in the last 12 years: 15, 7, 10, 3, 9, 2, 4, 9, 3, 3, 5, 12.
RATING of the winner: 107, 99, 108, 96, 103, 102, 119, 107, 99, 103, 116, 108.
TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 9, Team Gosden 3, Ralph Beckett 2. JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori 6, Ryan Moore 3.
1️⃣ EMILY UPJOHN A Sea The Stars filly out of a Barathea mare, she had won only novice events until a scintillating Musidora victory, when some compared her commanding performance to Enable.
Nashwa, her stablemate, has done well after 2-2 this Spring, but shows a lot of speed and, as a daughter of Pivotal, could still go and win the French Oaks (June 19) on an easier surface. It’s down to Hollie Doyle what sort of race she has today.
2️⃣ WITH THE MOONLIGHT Frankel’s 800th winner as a sire. She found it very easy in the Newmarket Pretty Polly Stakes, and has reportedly come on since and delighted connections.
Kawida, a daughter of Sir Percy, should be close to her – she’s beaten her twice – but I expect the form to be turned around on today’s surface and, as a Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, ‘Moonlight’ could find a great deal more.
3️⃣ THOUGHTS OF JUNE Improvement often comes from a Ballydoyle outsider, and Thoughts Of June could be the one, even though Ryan Moore is on Tuesday, whom I rate more a 10-furlong filly.
Thoughts Of June had her Cheshire Oaks victory boosted when the runner-up, Above The Curve, won Sunday’s Saint-Alary in Paris.
4️⃣ TUESDAY Another O’Brien runner; another Galileo; she’s out of Lillie Langtry, therefore a full sister to Minding. Third in the English 1,000 Guineas, second in the Irish. Likely to be placed without having the final surge to win.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.6 Emily Upjohn, 14.0 With The Moonlight
⭕ 2.00 Epsom Team Hannon sailed out of the doldrums with five winners from seven runners on Monday and Tuesday, and this Woodcote Stakes is a race father and son have both liked to win.
Stepping up a furlong on the Epsom hill will make a huge difference to Silencer, who was a £25,000 yearling but £160,000 two-year-old.
Blatant is another who will enjoy the trip but I worry about the big drift in the market.
Won in good style from the front at Leicester and likely to play catch-me from stall 3; bred to win an Ebor!
The market talker is Keep Bidding, who has yet to have a form boost and tries to follow a filly winner of this race last year.
Looking for a closer, I fancy Self Praise, denied a clear run at Doncaster and given a prohibitive wide draw at Chester. Bags of stamina.
BETDAQ value 7.3 Silencer, 10.5 Self Praise
⭕ 2.35 Epsom This mile is typical of a tricky Epsom handicap. Ages of the winner in the decade range from 4 to 9; only one outright favourite; low draw looks good but not much help at all.
Best indicator is a front-runner with the stamina to stay up that final climb. Corazon Espinado did it last year under Hollie Doyle and he returns at the double, back down the handicap on a mark which again has the beating of Hortzador, last year’s runner-up.
But Silvestre De Sousa takes over this time, with Hollie Doyle seemingly having preference for Excel Power, who completed a hat-trick for the second time in his career early last month, playing catch–me in all three.
Punters didn’t cotton on (the gelding started 20-1 for the first two hits) until the last day when he was gambled on at Windsor and won 6-5 favourite.
Other jockeys in today’s race who know well the Epsom trick of getting across early and running them into the ground are Andrea Atzeni (Fantastic Fox) and William Buick (Totally Charming).
BETDAQ value 6.4 Totally Charming, 10.5 Excel Power
⭕ 3.10 Epsom (Coronation Cup) See Tuesday’s ratings guide in the DAQMAN Archive.
Aidan O’Brien, who has won this three times in the decade, saw his 2021 Dante third, High Definition, slide down the ratings until the handicapper decided that his last run from the front, beaten a neck by Alenquer, was worth a 12lb hike, putting him just a pound behind the winner.
1️⃣ HIGH DEFINITION now has to justify that, sent up in trip; but he was once thought capable of winning a St Leger so Ryan Moore should have enough engine under him. The good ground does not help his nearest rivals.
2️⃣ PYLEDRIVER After a Group-2 double in 2020 in the King Edward V11 ‘Ascot Derby’ and the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, Pyledriver gamely won this Coronation Cup from the front on good to soft last year.
Manobo refused to settle the last day over 2m and Living Legend is a front-runner, so I can see some hectic pace on.
3️⃣ MANOBO Five starts, unbeaten in England, France and at Meydan from 1m 2f to 1m 6f, sequence ending by only half a length in two-mile Dubai Gold Cup. Won Group-2 Chaudenay in October on very soft.
BETDAQ value 6.2 High Definition
⭕ 3.45 Epsom Another tough Epsom handicap. This time four and five year olds win 90% and single-figure stalls are 8-10.
Roger Varian has won it three times in eight years, all three ridden by Andrea Atzeni; I could have quoted this record when I discussed the 2.35 rac, and said he rides this track well.
The Varian-Atzeni team have a hidden horse here in Royal Champion; a Feilden Stakes third who, as a Shamardal out of a half-sister to Dubawi, went for a Group-2 Derby trial last year – the Dante – but lost his form and needed gelding.
Moktasaab has improved 12lb since being switched to William Knight and Solo Sizzler is 11lb higher than when returning to form at Newmarket in October.
Solo Sizzler won back to back here at Epsom over 1m 4f in 2019, and is also a CD winner; could be hard to beat today under Ryan Moore.
But I fear a four-year-old from a favoured low draw in the hands of a stable which gets them fit enough to front-run on a track like Epsom.
I’m speaking of Team Johnston’s Love Is Golden, well backed when books were opened.
Well behind Solo Sizzler in the City and Suburban over the CD here after being denied a clear run.
But now getting 18lb, with a top pace jockey, Franny Norton, in the saddle; well drawn in 6, he can take the golden shot.
BETDAQ value 8.6 Solo Sizzler, 9.7 Love Is Golden
2.00 Epsom (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5.25pts win SELF PRAISE
BET 3pts win SILENCER
2.35 Epsom (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.5pts win EXCEL POWER
BET 3.75ps win TOTALLY CHARMING
3.10 Epsom (win 20, nap)
BET 4pts win HIGH DEFINITION
3.45 Epsom (win 20)
BET 2.6pts win SOLO SIZZLER
BET 2.3pts win LOVE IS GOLDEN
4.30 Epsom (The Oaks)
FORTUNE COOKIES (win 30, win 50)
BET 20pts win EMILY UPJOHN
BULL’S EYE BET 3.75pts win WITH THE MOONLIGHT
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