WHERE THERE’S VALUE IN THE MARKETS: With Epsom and Royal Ascot just around the corner, BETDAQ is your answer in the search for value betting. Daqman turns detective and reveals how the offers speak for themselves in the market place.
🔺 TODAY: Daqman’s pick of five meetings.
🔺 TOMORROW: The Saturday best from 10 tracks.
🔺 SUNDAY: Jumps racing only in England and Ireland but a Group 1 in Paris.
🔺 ALL NEXT WEEK: Derby countdown.
What you wish for is what you get. Unless you’re a punter and then, though you and everyone else knows it’s summer, you are forced to bet in small fields at indefensible prices, while the powers-that-be wring their hands about the firm ground.
* Today at Brighton, there are no double-figure fields and four have only the one-two for places.
* Today at Pontefract, there are no double-figure fields (‘the sun’s dried us out’).
* Today at Stratford, just the one. At Carlisle, also only one.
I’m reminded of a song by the great Sandy Denny: ‘They said that it was snowing in astounded tones on the news; I wonder why they’re so surprised, ‘cos every year it snows!’
Every year, more summer meetings on firm ground. Every year runners spread thinly among them. Every year they’re ‘desperate to know when to water, when not to water.’
But that’s only half the story. I’m looking – halfway through Thursday afternoon – at BETDAQ offers on the remaining races at Ripon: 101% overround, 102.5%, 102.8%, 101.5%, 103%.
Yet, the official returns on the first two races run are 118% total SP; 116% total SP. At Yarmouth already, 117%, 116%, 121%. The bookies are not suffering, are they!
As we approach the Derby and Royal Ascot, stick with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE . Avoid the hidden loss of bookmaker take-outs, as seen in these percentage SP totals last year:
ASCOT day one: 120 (twice), 121, 122 and 128. Day two: 123, 126, 131, 134. Day three: 120, 121, 134, 138. Day four: 121, 122, 26 (twice). Day five: 121, 122, 127.
⭕ 2.20 Carlisle Tim Easterby is suddenly in full stride with 5-13 in two days, and Canaria Prince ran way above expectations – he was 100-1 at Thirsk – on his reappearance.
He’s getting nearly two stone from George Boughey’s hat-trick-seeking filly, Colombe, who has a penalty for beating losers. Canaria Prince 9.8 on BETDAQ.
⭕ 1.00 Brighton Boughey’s best strike-rate of four meetings (he has runners at Brighton, Carlisle, Chepstow and Haydock) is Brighton at 44%, where he saddles Lumacho (BETDAQ 4.6). In fact, he’s 50% with his two-year-olds there (3-6).
Lumacho, a 48,000gns yearling, who fetched 70,000 as a two-year-old, is by Camacho: a son of Danehill out of a Zafonic mare, Camacho won on the debut.
⭕ 3.40 Chepstow Dickens (BETDAQ 9.4) has form in a hood of 42131 (without 03000), and Alan King puts the hood back on today in this three-year-olds plus handicap, with the yard 6-9 in such races at Chepstow (so 67%) and showing a level-stakes profit of £26.
⭕ 6.55 Haydock Hello Jumeirah launched her career with victory at Kempton over a Charlie Appleby hot-pot and a subsequent winner at Lingfield.
She was obviously highly regarded by William Haggas to then be sent for a Listed, the Cheshire Oaks, with the one-two from that now quoted for the Eclipse and the Ribblesdale.
Nicholas George won at Redcar (soft) on his seasonal reappearance but the first six home have scored just one win since, and he has to give my selection 5lb.
Our Jester is a bumper winner who was beaten at odds-on in a small-field event at Bath a couple of weeks back.
The usual suspects – Saeed Bin Suroor, Team Gosden and Andrew Balding – are also involved in this but Hello Jumeirah, who has a Ribblesdale entry, appears to have shown her yard a touch of class.
Not forgetting that when Haggas and Cieren Fallon team up, they have a 28% strike–rate. You could get around 2-1 this morning.
⭕ 7.05 Stratford This champion-hunters’ chase of more than 3m 3f could point Vaucelet in the direction of Aintree and Cheltenham next year.
The Fermanagh-based seven-year-old won the novices’ version of today’s chase over the CD a year ago, and was six wins out of seven when facing Billaway, the Cheltenham champion, in the Punchestown Champion Hunters’ Chase last month.
Vaucelet had just joined Billaway for a battle to the line when he made a bad mistake and lost ground at the last. BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.52.
⭕ 8.25 Haydock Most times Kapono is between 10-1 to 33-1 and his strike rate is zero. But, when the money’s down, and he is 8-1 or less, his form figures on turf blossom to 121, noticeably when his mark drops below 80 to 73 and 76. Today he’s on 72.
Kapono has been 18-1, 20-1, 33-1 and 16-1 in his last four starts, but is this morning down to 7.2 on BETDAQ over the CD and on the ground which won him this race last year a pound higher.
1.00 Brighton (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win LUMACHO
2.20 Carlisle (win 10)
BET 1.2pts win CANARIA PRINCE
3.40 Chepstow (win 20, value of the day)
BET 2.3pts win DICKENS
6.55 Haydock (win 10)
BET 5pts win HELLO JUMEIRAH
7.05 Stratford (win 12, nap)
BET 7.75pts win VAUCELET
8.25 Haydock (win 10)
BET 1.6pts win KAPONO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.