DAQMAN Mon: Kempton NAP


DAQMAN’S THREE BIG-RACE GUIDES: Daqman’s top eight in his ABC guide to the Lincoln Handicap contained the first three at 28-1, 17-2 and 12-1 (from 20.0). Now look out this week for the first of his stats-and-facts assessments of three Grand Nationals, which are held from Saturday over 16 days.

THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS: Look out also for nerve-wracking ante-post play which could earn you bonus odds for small stakes. Let the Nationals countdown begin!

Three Nationals in 16 days. Scotland leads three weekends of Grand Nationals, the Ayr version having been brought forward to this week on the first Saturday in April. Ireland now has centre stage of the holiday racing with the Fairyhouse Easter Festival.

It features the 150th Irish Grand National on Easter Monday, just nine days after Aintree. With 93 entries to Ayr’s 50 and Aintree’s 92, the Fairyhouse marathon is usually run on decent Spring ground.

Lucinda Russell, who had four horses in the first five in the Ayr version 12 months ago, will not have a runner this time around.

‘The Scottish National is a bit close to Cheltenham,’ she said, withdrawing her Ultima winner, Corach Rambler. The yard runs Mighty Thunder at Aintree.

One thing that never changes is the limping start to the Flat turf season. After Saturday’s Lincoln, there’s nothing of note now until the Newmarket Craven Meeting after Aintree weekend.


SATURDAY, April 2 AYR: Scottish Grand National and championships
THURSDAY, April 7 AINTREE opening day
FRIDAY, April 8 AINTREE Topham Trophy
MONDAY, April 18 FAIRYHOUSE: Irish Grand National


SATURDAY, March 26-27 English and Irish Lincolnshire handicaps all wrapped up!
FRIDAY, April 1 That fooled ya! There’s a Flat/turf meeting at LEICESTER

⭕ 1.45 Ludlow I wouldn’t be at the front of the queue to back morning BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE favourite Finest View here.

The Alan King trained five-year-old won a Lingfield bumper on debut and was thrown in at the deep end in bumpers at Aintree and Cheltenham subsequently but looked outclassed.

She’s run well enough in her first two starts over hurdles at Wincanton and Exeter but might be vulnerable to one with more scope such as Choral Work.

She was a good ground winner on the flat when trained by William Haggas and has made a pleasing start over hurdles finishing 212 – the first run was when trained in Ireland.

She made a winning start for Olly Murphy at Taunton and then found Fingal’s Hill too good at Newcastle. I think she is capable of further improvement which mitigates the weight (penalty) she needs to give away to both Finest View and Prime Time Lady who is starting to look quite exposed.

⭕ 6.00 Newcastle A small field but it looks an interesting novice race that could easily prove, in time, much better than the official Grade 4 calibration.

Moonis is quite short having made a pleasing debut at Kempton but it wasn’t pleasing enough for the backers who sent him off a 7/4 chance to see him beaten six and a half lengths.

He’ll need to improve on that (as he his entitled to) but it didn’t look the strongest form at the time – there was a 22/1 winner and the third home Sicilian Vito was beaten 12 lengths next time out.

Add to the mix that Roger Varian, trainer Moonis, is 0-10 at the moment with seven of those starting at 5/1 or less and hopefully you can understand my reticence.

Giavellotto seemingly surprised everyone with his 100/1 debut win at Kempton but the runner-up Wild Crusade has won since and it might not have been the fluke win it looked.

The penalty will make life tough but he should improve as much as the favourite from their respective debuts and the 2.78 at time of writing appeals much than the 2.22 Moonis.

⭕ 8.00 Newcastle Show Maker followed up a good run here with a win at Wolverhampton last time out.

He’s going the right way and might not be too harshly treated on handicap debut in a wide open finale.

DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 3.7pts win CHORAL WORK (1.45 Ludlow)
BET 5.6pts win GIAVELLOTTO (nap) (6.00 Newcastle)
BET 1.8pts win SHOW MAKER (8.00 Newcastle)

What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….

Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.

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