25 POINTS UP FROM A WINNING NAP: Daqman made a profit on the day of eight points yesterday after a courageous Menai Bridge landed a win-25 nap, best at BETDAQ morning offers, best at the ‘off’ (3.47 XSP).
WON 9-4 MENAI BRIDGE (nap)
50 POINT BETS AGAINST PRICEWISE: Daqman leads Pricewise 29-16 in winning bets as they do battle today in big races at Kempton, Lingfield (the Winter Derby) and Newcastle (the Eider Chase), with tips at 20.0 twice and 24.0 for 50-pointers on BETDAQ.
SALUTE KNIGHT PROGRESS
ALENQUER’S DERBY QUEST
HANDY WINGS FOR EIDER
BETDAQ’S 20.0 BEAKSTOWN
⭕ 1.50 Kempton (Adonis Juvenile Hurdle) Two top yards are hoping their youngsters in this can pay for a current dearth of winners.
Paul Nicholls is 2-20 since breaking back with Bravemansgame, while Alan King is also struggling for form at the moment (1-13).
Nicholls lobs a spanner in the works, running two not yet seen over hurdles. One of his three Adonis winners in the last nine seasons was unraced over hurdles and never seen before in England.
Alan King has won this in three of the last five years and Big Boy Bobby could be each-way material.
The good news is that favourites have won four years running and are 6-9, so maybe following the market will get you a return.
Impulsive One was odds on, giving the winner, Knight Salute, 7lb when turned over here at Kempton in October.
It’s level terms now but, in the meantime, Knight Salute has shot 7lb clear in the ratings by completing a hat-trick: the Kempton win plus two in Grade 2.
Impulsive One went on to win the Scottish Triumph Hurdle very easily, but that was a piece of smart opportunism by trainer Nicky Henderson, who admits that Seven Barrows is short on promising juveniles this season.
Apart from the Nicholls pair, the hurdles debutant to keep an eye on is The Famous Five, whose owner paid 250,000 euros for the son of Camelot, a winner at Vichy and Fontainebleau which are decent venues not your unpronounceable gaffe tracks in the Provinces. They might want a bit of that back very soon.
BETDAQ nap value 2.9 Knight Salute
⭕ 2.05 Lingfield (Winter Derby) This is a ‘French’ Derby, one run over 1m 2f not the Derby distance of 1m 4f, and it’s an ‘Irish’ Classic for all ages like their St Leger, not just for three-year-olds.
It couldn’t be more appropriate for Alenquer. He’s won the ‘Ascot Derby’ which is actually the King Edward V11 Stakes but his Sandown Classic Trial success (1m 2f) and International (1m 2.5f) second to Mishriff are the best races he’s run.
Alenquer is almost half a stone in front of everything in the race, except Lord North, who he has a similar edge on Alenquer in the official ratings, plus the added edge – with Forest of Dean – of going for a Winter Derby four-timer for Team Gosden.
Forest Of Dean won this race last year off 106 by threeparts of a length from a horse called Felix, who then ran a four–lengths third to Lord North at Meydan in March, making me think Alenquer is a good thing here if he runs to form.
There are two other reasons. Older horses – six and seven – have won this sub-110 at a time when this Winter Derby was establishing itself.
I don’t think the race has seen an Alenquer before, and I don’’t think Team Gosden expected to see him either; they hoped for the £62,000 prize to be gifted to Lord North,who is a once-a-year horse these days, with just one run on his CV since 2020.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5 Alenquer
⭕ 3.15 Newcastle (Eider Chase) Stats special preview yesterday.
Tough-as-teak Cash To Ash has won at Newcastle and been runner-up in a 4m marathon but needs rain. Innisfree Lad is right alongside him on their second and third in the Scottish Borders National.
Danilo D’Airy, very lightly raced, has won on all types of ground but in lower grade. A galloper who could get the trip.
Gwencily Berbas, trained by Team Pipe, past masters at marathon races, went clear over 3m 6f in December and much of his extra weight is negated by Fergus Gillard’s claim.
Win My Wings won 3m 2f mares’ handicap at Cheltenham in April (going good). Back to form at Exeter (3m soft) the last day, beating a next-time winner. Unexposed, cheekpieces fitted and Ryan Mania rides.
BETDAQ value 8.3 Win My Wings, 24.0 Cash To Ash
⭕ 3.37 Kempton Trophy I put the bedside light out and stuffed the form-books back under the bed. I’d gone right back but failed to find a winning favourite in this race! Not a one.
Yet all the past winners I looked at had good recent form or came to the race off a decent effort in something hot like the Ladbrokes Trophy.
Top-weight Good Boy Bobby is up 12lb after a fine run late last year, culminating in his Rowland Meyrick success.
Contrast with Christian Williams’ Cap Du Nord, down a stone since fifth in this race last year. His stable also runs Five Star Getaway,who scored here in December, beating a next-time winner of a Listed chase at Ascot.
Christian Williams throws his best chasers into this! He has yet another runner, Kitty’s Light, down 9lb, back to better ground and with Brian Hughes booked.
Sandown Gold Cup third Enrilo has failed to finish in two reappearance runs, is still 8lb higher than his winning form and has to beat the current Ditcheat hoodoo.
Annsam and Phoenix Way were winner and second in the Ascot Silver Cup in December. Phoenix Way has franked the form since but only when dropped back in trip.
Beakstown, fifth in a novices’ handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2m 4f) in 2020, is entered in two of the big handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, one of them the Ultima (3m 1f).
It’s last-chance saloon today with Beakstown, down 10lb overall, having his first try at 3m, a trip promised in his pedigree.
BETDAQ value 9.8 Cap Du Nord, 20 Beakstown, Kittys Light
1.50 Kempton (win 20 nap)
BET 10pts win KNIGHT SALUTE
2.05 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 5pts win ALENQUER
3.15 Newcastle (win 50 bull’s-eye bets, 10pts place)
BET 6.75pts win WIN MY WINGS
BET 2pts win and 2.5pts place CASH TO ASH
3.37 Kempton (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5.5pts win CAP DU NORD
BET 2.5pts win on each BEAKSTOWN, KITTYS LIGHT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.