DAQMAN PLUNGE IS ALREADY A ‘WINNER’: Daqman always has an ante-post bet on the Grand National after the weights are out. This one’s a bit different: it’s a 200-point gamble overall and is already a ‘winner’ in terms of ‘overs’ from a previous ante-post bet.
SHAMEFUL: Daqman’s verdict on the controversy about Tiger Roll’s non-participation at Aintree: ‘shameful to continue talking him down.’
TODAY’S NAP at Sandown was even money this morning but he opens the meeting with a 15.0 outsider.
Ida good idea this morning! After burning the midnight oil for another Grand National punt, ante–post, I found that I couldn’t look beyond the mare I’ve already backed.
Mount Ida fits the bill in many respects; laid out for the race; nice weight mark; unlimited stamina; and her every chance of going well in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham should reduce her price, which is the main point of ante-post betting.
In fact, she is already a ‘winner’ – we already have bags of overs – her odds having closed from the 34.0 we took on BETDAQ at the entry stage to 21.0 in the Sportsbook after the publication of the weights.
And she was one of few solid endorsements by a trainer at the unveiling ceremony. Gordon Elliott said: ‘The Grand National has been the plan after the stunning way she won the Kim Muir. She could be made for the Aintree race.’
In the Kim Muir, she was so far behind, she was offered 999-1 on the exchanges, but motored through from the back with such a change of gears that she ‘did the impossible’, pulling off a freak win which turned out to be no such thing; the genuine article.
As I said yesterday, Gordon has the National by the scruff of the neck, with every other trainer dangling on decisions made by him and his owners about the yard’s two top-weights in the race.
I’m sure he’d still like to run Tiger Roll. He’s plotted his trajectory to this year’s treble chance and both he and the horse deserve to have a crack at it.
I picked Tiger Roll to win a National when he was Mount Ida’s age and I’ve written several times in this column that horses should be retired when they’ve done enough.
But this is a genuine Red Rum scenario: a horse loving the race, not overraced, still capable of giving a master class. It is shameful to continue talking him down.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE Sportsbook bets on Mount Ida 34.0 and now 21.0 (total win 200).
⭕ 1.10 Sandown The jockey has a 50% strike rate at Sandown Park, and he has a 50% strike rate riding for David Pipe. The horse is now back on deep ground; his form is 1101 on soft.
Add the facts together and you have better than an outside chance that Fergus Gillard can win the conditional jockeys’ hurdle on Seventeen O Four at BETDAQ 15.0.
⭕ 1.45 Sandown Course-specialist Darebin (BETDAQ 6.8) has run at Sandown 17 times and his mark looks right for this bid to make it four CD wins. His trainer had four wins split between Lingfield and Plumpton on Monday and Tuesday.
Nick Gifford has won this race twice in the last five years but it’s hard to see Paddy’s Poem giving 19lb to Darebin.
Torpillo has slid a stone or so down the handicap since winning a novice chase in 2019 but has shown not a spark of form since then.
Desque De L’isle has never quite coped whenever put up above class 4 or above a 110 rating. Somekindofstar races off his highest mark.
Douglas Talking (BETDAQ 3.95) impressed at Musselburgh and has Lucinda Russell making a rare trip from Scotland to make it a match of the lightweights with Darebin.
⭕ 2.20 Sandown Lucinda also has Haute Estime coming down to show off his ‘unbelievable’ jumping skills (quote unquote jockey Derek Fox), after a Listed win at Haydock.
Nina The Terrier is top rated, 5lb better after finishing second that day as favourite, coming late but given too much to do.
The collateral form is good. Haute Estime had run third to Current Mood, an easy Chepstow winner afterwards and who had run in Grade 2 novice hurdles behind Blazing Khal at Cheltenham in the autumn.
But Haute Estime and Nina The Terrier are up against Harry Fry’s big unbeaten Westerner mare Love Envoi, winner of three hurdles from 2m to 2m 5f, on good to soft to heavy, climbing the ranks from class-4 maiden to class-2 novice.
Speech Bubble cannot be ruled out but is that bit older but trainer Noel Williams sees her future over fences (‘she’s built for it’).
1.10 Sandown (win 20 from win and place)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place SEVENTEEN O FOUR
1.45 Sandown (win 10)
BET 5pts win DOUGLAS TALKING
BET 1.75pts win DAREBIN
2.20 Sandown (win 10 nap)
BET 10pts win LOVE ENVOI
BET 5pts win MOUNT IDA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.