BETDAQ VALUE ALL DAY AT GOODWOOD: It has the look of a glorious race meeting and Goodwood has some glorious offers on BETDAQ: Daqman takes 5.6, 10.5, 10.0, 19.0 and 26.0, plus 10.5 tonight for the feature race at Galway. Starter scores:
Daqman 32 winners in July
Daqman 39, Pricewise 24 in the value challenge
THERE’S A NEW KING OF THE STAYERS: The big race of the day awaits a decision about Trueshan in the conditions for the Goodwood Cup but no matter, says Daqman, there’s a new king of the stayers.
FALCON CAN SWOOP FOR FRANKIE
GALERON TOO BIG AT BETDAQ 10.0
SACRED A 7-FURLONG SPECIALIST
KYPRIOS IS KING OF THE STAYERS
DESTINY CALLING AT BETDAQ 10.5
ARISE, SIR ADO: FOUR IN A ROW!
⭕ 1.50 Goodwood (Chesterfield Cup) Mr Goodwood, Mark Johnston, has pinned his faith in Frankie Dettori to land him a fifth Chesterfield Cup in 10 years.
Forest Falcon is the right age: horses older than five have not won in the decade. He has the right draw in 16, with 10, 11, 13, 14, 16 and 17 scoring most.
Low numbers (1, 3, 5, 6) – including two for Johnston – have won from the front or coming late because squeezed for room on the rail.
Brilliant Light, who has suffered from a rails draw in recent races, will probably be reined back out of stall 2.
Just Fine (gate 7) has been a let-down for Fortune Cookies, twice finishing close up at York, including in the John Smiths.
The most likely early leader is Etonian, just run out of it over this trip at Ascot 18 days back, but from a yard with not a lot to boast about this season, least of all its low strike-rate.
Moktasaab (can run awkwardly) and Caradoc were one-two over the Goodwood CD in the Spring in a slow time.
Lord Protector (gate 17 today for the in-form Ralph Beckett) improved over the 10f at Sandown which is a similar track to this, coming to hand at the right time. Arqoob (out of 18) did the exact same thing! So I’m taking stalls 16, 17 and 18 to deliver the winner.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 19.0 Forest Falcon, 26.0 Lord Protector
⭕ 2.25 Goodwood (Vintage Stakes) Stalls 5, 6, 7 have won six out of eight, and the front of the market is virtually unbeatable: the 9-2 winner in 2015 was an outsider! Seven favourites have scored in nine years.
Though Holloway Boy’s Chesham victory at Royal Ascot has been let down since by all three of runner-up, fourth and fifth (Dark Thirty), connections insist he is better than the bare form, and trainer Karl Burke says: ‘Mine always come on for their first run.’
They’ve kept Mysterious Night to 6f or so but he’s well capable of this on breeding and was staying on well in the July Stakes (Group 2), won by a 108-rated.
Dear Mr Friend is another Johnston and another who likes to front-run, and the stable warns that he’s a big, raw type and they’ve ‘only just scratched the surface with him.’
Dear My Friend made virtually all at Beverley and his form has been franked at that lower level. Stablemate Dornoch Castle also has to take a big step up, while Marbaan is tied to Dark Thirty.
Galeron is already a winner on the course, with the runner-up, Trillium, impressive at Newbury since and a probable for the Molecomb tomorrow. He’s too big at the morning offers.
BETDAQ value 5.6 Mysterious Night, 10.0 Galeron
⭕ 3.00 Goodwood (Lennox Stakes) It’s rare for an older horse over the age of five to win this (1-10, in fact), and Pogo has already been beaten twice here, his career best at Group 3 not this Group-2 level, though his current form can’t be denied.
I said it was ‘last-chance saloon’ for Lusail when he let me down at Deauville, after a game second in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Another proviso hangs over Lusail as it does Etonian in the first; we’re talking a low strike-rate and a season of disappointments for Richard Hannon so far.
I prefer last year’s Nell Gwyn and Hungerford Stakes winner (both 7f) Sacred, dropped back a furlong in the Platinum Jubilee sprint and, as you’d expect, running on really well, beaten only a length.
It’s a negative that she goes well fresh, and missed out there, but hopefully enough time has passed since Royal Ascot. I took 3.1 on BETDAQ.
The horse Sacred beat comfortably in the Hungerford last August was Laneqash, who hasn’t improved a single pound since those days, according to the handicapper, and is a nose behind Pogo on his best form this year, with Kinross a further neck away.
Kinross won this Lennox Stakes last year, half a length in front of Happy Power, despite being a bit short of room.
⭕ 3.35 Goodwood (Goodwood Cup) See Monday’s preview.
Win or lose today, it’s goodbye Stradivarius! A fifth victory in this Goodwood Cup would be a remarkable swansong.
He may face off with his French Gold Cup conqueror, Trueshan (soft ground), and Ascot Gold Cup nemesis, Kyprios (firm), though Trueshan must be a doubtful runner on the ground.
Trueshan also beat Stradivarius in the British Champions Long Distance Cup of 2021 and, whether Frankie Dettori’s Ascot ride was ill-judged or not, Stradivarius is eight now, twice the age of Kyprios.
Aidan O’Brien’s young stayer will have no problem dropping back in trip: he had won twice over 1m 6f in his Spring preps for gold. This would crown him king. I took BETDAQ 3.05.
⭕ 4.10 Goodwood Today will tell us more about the effect of the draw – if any – at Goodwood this week. For the opening sprints, we must take our cue from the stats, which tell us that this race has been won six times out of seven by a single-figure stall.
Lord Riddiford, last year’s winner out of 7, is in the two stall but the ground was soft that day and he was able to come from behind and overtake the speed merchants.
Without the same conditions this time around, you’re betting that he will reproduce the form of his last turf win, also here, which was at this meeting four years ago. Winning rider on him last year, Hollie Doyle switches to Lihou (gate 3).
Celsius has been raised 9lb for back-to-back success on firm ground this year, but his form at today’s class-2 level is 000, since he scored in a class 3 at this meeting three years ago.
If stall 12 is no handicap, Dusky Lord could take the heat out of Celcius: he was beaten a length and a half by that one at the July Meeting, failing to get a clear run two out, and is now 5lb better off and in cheekpieces first time.
Equality has been dropped 3lb since third at this level on a similar freewheeling track at Epsom at the Derby meeting.
Sandown Listed winner, Atalis Bay is down 5lb, and gelded, seemingly well drawn in gate 7, having his fourth race for speed trainer Robert Cowell. Danny Tudhope had a sprint winner for the stable 11 days ago.
‘Hidden horse’ is Stone Of Destiny, who has won off 93 and 97, but has crashed 22lb since this time last year, and will feel light-headed off 84, plus a 5lb claim by Harry Davies. Well supported at Goodwood 10lb higher in the Spring. Gate 5.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Stone Of Destiny
⭕ 6.40 Galway (The Mile) Ado McGuinness is mob–handed attempting four in a row in this. After Riven Light (2017-18) and Saltonstall (2019-20), I’ll take last year’s winner, Sirjack Thomas, for a third set of back-to-back winners.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Sirjack Thomas
1.50 Goodwood (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 2.75pts win FOREST FALCON
BET 2pts win LORD PROTECTOR|
2.25 Goodwood (win 20, win 30)
BET 4.25pts win MYSTERIOUS NIGHT
BET 3.25pts win GALERON
3.00 Goodwood (win 10)
BET 5pts win SACRED
3.35 Goodwood (win 20 nap)
BET 10pts win KYPRIOS
4.10 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 2pts win STONE OF DESTINY
6.40 Galway (win 10)
Bet 1pt win SIRJACK THOMAS
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