CLASSIC COUNTDOWN: 18 LEFT IN THE DERBY: Despite strong market leaders, Saturday’s Epsom Derby field is currently holding up at 18 probables at yesterday’s declarations stage. SEE Pride The Late Derby Entry.
DAQMAN’S BIG-RACE GUIDES: After yesterday’s Oaks ABC, Daqman checks out the ratings and form for Friday’s Coronation Cup. SEE Driver Is In Pole Position.
Tomorrow: DERBY ABC horse-by-horse ratings and form
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Saturday (The Derby) Eighteen horses have been declared for Saturday’s 2022 Epsom Derby, with supplementary entries from Nations Pride and El Habeeb.
That brings the Godolphin team to three starters under Charlie Appleby, already Classic winners in the English (Coreobus) and Irish (Native Trail) 2,000 Guineas.
Their Derby trio is Nahanni, Nations Pride and Walk The Stars. The 18 acceptors in market order are:
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 3 Desert Crown, 6 Stone Age, Piz Badile, 11 Nations Pride, 14.5 Changingoftheguard, 17 Star Of India, Walk The Stars, Westover, 21 Eydon, Nahanni, 26 Royal Patronage, West Wind Blows, 41 Sonny Liston, 66 Masekela, 80 Grand Alliance, 100 El Habeeb, Glory Daze, 126 Hoo Ya Mal.
Check the BETDAQ Sportsbook prices and Exchange offers every day.
⭕ 3.10 Epsom, Friday (Coronation Cup, 1m 4f) Aidan O’Brien has won this three times in the decade; he runs High Definition on Friday. Be warned that, despite small fields and the 1m 4f distance, stalls 1, 2, 3 have a 70% total strike-rate in the last 10 years.
The favourite is also on 70%. Ages 4 and 5 combine for an 80% strike rate. Here are the runners in ratings order:
120 PYLEDRIVER After a Group-2 double in 2020 in the King Edward V11 ‘Ascot Derby’ and the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York, he gamely won this Coronation Cup on good to soft last year when rated 117. Has raced abroad this winter.
119 HIGH DEFINITION Beresford Stakes as a two-year-old is his last winning form, and he’s still not scored beyond the mile. But he was third in last year’s Dante to the subsequent Irish Derby winner, and beaten only a neck by Alenquer in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh 12 days ago; both races around 1m 2f.
116 HUKUM Out of the frame just twice in 12 starts on turf and AW in England; Group-3 winner four times. Raced at Meydan in March, winning the City of Gold (Group 2 of 1m 4f).
113 MANOBO Five starts, unbeaten in England, France and at Meydan from 1m 2f to 1m 6f, sequence ending by only half a length in two-mile Dubai Gold Cup. Won Group-2 Chaudenay in October on very soft.
112 LIVING LEGEND Improved out of handicaps in 10lb rise this year, completing a hat-trick when taking the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket (Group 2), turning over 4-1-on Yibir.
104 PALAVECINO Best form, third in a Group 2 at Chester last May. Prepped for this by winning a Lingfield AW handicap.
⭕ 2.40 Newbury: I was tempted to stick to races on the straight course today after losing the NAP yesterday when Lingfield’s round track races were abandoned. Fingers crossed for no more problems today otherwise I really will be going round the bend.
Newbury stage quite a modest card by their standards and after 9mm of rain on Monday the course is now set to ride good to soft.
The meeting starts with four maiden races and in the final one of those Eternal Pearl should outclass her rivals.
The Charlie Appleby trained runner already has soft ground form which is a huge positive in a field of ground question marks.
She chased home the odds-on favourite Sea Silk Road in a Listed race at Goodwood (pair finished nicely clear) and that form looks exceptional in the context of today’s race.
Something would need to improve considerably on what they have shown so far and in a field of lightly raced fillies that can’t be ruled out entirely.
Wonderful Times for the Gosdens has finished second in both her starts and should be suited by the step up in trip but the ground is unknown. Similar comments apply to the Royal runner Perfect Alibi who has something to find with Wonderful Times on Ascot form.
⭕ 7.52 Thirsk A long wait until my second bet of the day but hopefully will be worth it.
Fresh Fancy, owned by the Queen, can add to the celebrations by landing this well above average (for the course) novice event.
She was weak in the market on debut at Kempton but came out best in a blanket finish and should improve considerably this term.
She has now moved to Harry & Roger Charlton who are running at an exceptional 5-12 current strike-rate.
The assumption is that Qabilah would need to be well above average to win on debut so the danger has to be Cuban Beat who is a little more experienced than the selection.
She was also a Kempton winner last year who has also moved stable since – this one now running for James Ferguson.
⭕ 8.27 Thirsk This is as open as the market suggests but I was surprised to see Antagonize trading as big as 12.0 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE mid morning market.
His Musselburgh runner-up spot last time out reads as well as anything and he holds the better fancied Just Hiss on that form.
Distance and going are ideal and the handicapper has kept him on the same mark of 65.
I’ll stake to win 20 on the win market and 10 from the place market.
2.40 Newbury (win 10)
BET 11.1pts win (nap) ETERNAL PEARL
7.52 Thirsk (win 10)
BET 4.5pts win FRESH FANCY
8.27 Thirsk (win 20, place 10)
BET 1.8pts win and 3.3pts place ANTAGONIZE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.