FORM STATS FOR THE GRAND-VALUE NATIONAL Pro punters put the stats and facts into their computers and ask the algorithm to tell them the Grand National winner. Here the basic feeds are given a key letter by Daqman to produce his ABC Guide to Saturday’s big race. Use it as a form preview: add your favourite jockeys; tie in your own secret formula. But remember the one certainty of the race is the fantastic value from BETDAQ.
🧢 Rachael Blackmore: Last year’s winning rider, Rachael Blackmore, will renew partnership with Minella Times, who has a 15lb higher rating than when he won in 2021.
🧢 Daryl Jacob, who rode the winner in 2012, will partner Good Boy Bobby in preference to Kildisart.
🏇 Eclair Surf: One of the top seven in the betting markets needs two to come out if he is to get a run.
🏇 Death Duty: Gordon Elliott drops Battleoverdoyen from his team of eight, hiking Death Duty above the cut-off line. Battleoverdoyen runs in Friday’s Topham Trophy instead.
⭕ 5.15 Aintree, Saturday (Grand National)
A Winner or placed over 3m+ in quality staying chase (92%)
B Carrying 10st 6lb to 11st 6lb (7-10)
C Aged eight and nine (6-6)
D Last ran no more than 35 days ago (78%)
E Won or ran well in a race named ‘National’ or key race (60%)
F Trainer who does well in Nationals
G Has jumped the National fences
+ Trainer in form x Trainer out for form
🤔 LAYS LOGIC (L) Last ran more than 55 days ago (96% against). The last 7yo to win was in 1940 and a 12yo has won only three times since 1980.
ABCDFx MOUNT IDA
Kim Muir winner Cheltenham 2021, coming from so far off the pace that she was 999-1 in running on the BETDAQ exchange. Got behind in same race this year and finished in rear but had been impressive in quality-level back-to-back wins over shorter at Clonmel and Fairyhouse.
ABCEFG+ BURROWS SAINT
Winner of the 2019 Irish National and fourth in the Aintree National last year off same mark as today. Placed all three runs since for champion trainer who has won this before.
Placed in Graded chases last Christmas before second in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival and staying-on fifth in the Grand National when only seven. Back-to-form second to Run Wild Fred in the Troytown Chase in November but not seen since.
ABCE(L) ENJOY D’ALLEN
Irish Grand National third and kept on, third again, in big Leopardstown chase over Christmas. Placed in all 10 chases.
ABCEF (L)+ AGUSTA GOLD
Grade-3 winner and runner-up Punchestown Grand National Trial (2020) for Margaret Mullins. Back to form, second, for Willie Mullins, favourite and tried to make all at Down Royal (3m 2f) in March.
ABCE(L) MIGHTY THUNDER
National star in 2021: won the Edinburgh National and Scottish Grand National and second in the Midlands version. Poor in three races since; pulled up the last twice.
ABCF+ GOOD BOY BOBBY
Autumn Gold Cup fourth at Cheltenham 2020 but returned to hurdles until second in 2021 Rehearsal Chase and won the Rowland Meyrick in December. Stable has won three Grand Nationals.
NH Chase, Cheltenham, runner-up 2019, and Ultima third in 2020. Seventh in the National last year (dropped just a pound); back to form at Fairyhouse in February.
ABDEFG+ CLOTH CAP
Grand National favourite in 2021; lost second four out and had wind surgery after. Scottish National third (2019) and won the 2020 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury, shrugging off 12lb rise to take the Premier Chase at Kelso (2021) as prep run before Aintree. Prepped in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster (third) this time.
ABDEG(L) ANIBALE FLY
Second and third in 2018-19 Cheltenham Gold Cups before excellent efforts in the National: 4th in 2018 and 5th in 2019 ( PU 2021). Good third at 2021 Punchestown festival but aged 12 now.
*ABDEFx DEATH DUTY
Former Drinmore winner came back to form at age 11 to win the Punchestown Grand National Trial in February and sixth in the Ultima at Cheltenham. Winning form all on soft or heavy.
ABEG(L) SNOW LEOPARDESS
Won the Becher Chase at Aintree in December, middle leg of a soft-ground hat-trick, jumping the National fences well.
ACDEFx DELTA WORK
Grade-1 novice won the 2020 Irish Gold Cup, beating the subsequent 2021 winner, Kemboy. Only sixth in same race this year but won a duel with Tiger Roll for the Cheltenham cross-country title in March.
ACDEFx RUN WILD FRED
Thyestes Chase runner-up in 2021 before second again in the Irish Grand National. Beat Farclas in the Troytown Chase in November. Kept on, again runner-up, in the NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
ACEFG+(L) MINELLA TIMES
Graded seconds in big fields before impressively taking the 2021 National. Raised 15lb and has failed to finish since but said to be back to form at home recently.
AEFG ANY SECOND NOW
He’s 7lb higher for being third last year (badly hampered 12th). Kim Muir winner at Cheltenham (3m 2f) on good to soft in 2019; Leopardstown Chase third 2020. Back to form the last day, beating Escaria Ten and Burrows Saint in the Bobbyjo Chase. Trainer Ted Walsh won it with Papillon (2000).
ABCFx ESCORIA TEN
NH Chase third last year and back to form, beaten a nose, in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February.
Runner-up in the Ladbrokes Trophy in November. Placed in all 10 chases, including 2021 Cheltenham Festival Handicap.
ABCEx LONGHOUSE POET
Beat Run Wild Fred in beginners’ chase at Punchestown in December, 2020, and only his second race since when winning the Thyestes Chase in January.
ABC+ TWO FOR GOLD
Placed 11 times in 13 chases to Grade-1 level, six times a winner. Unseated on first circuit in 2021 Grand National.
ABCEGx LORD DU MESNIL
Won Tommy Whittle (2019) at Haydock. Winner (2021) and second (2020) in Grand National Trial there. Ran well to halfway in Becher Chase before runner-up to Good Boy Bobby in the Rowland Meyrick at Christmas.
ABCE(L)x DEISE ABA
Best form at Sandown, including runner-up in the London National.
ABCF(L) COURT MAID
Won 2020 Porterstown at Fairyhouse (3m5f) and ninth over the same CD in 2021 Irish Grand National. Has just switched stables from Thomas Mullins to Henry de Bromhead.
Gold Cup third in 2020 but lost form until winning at Ascot in the autumn last year. Poor since but 10lb lower now.
ABDEF+ BRAHMA BULL
Punchestown Festival winner last Spring; second in the Kerry National and third in the Ladbrokes Trophy in the autumn. Modest since, including tried in cross-country.
Second in the Brown Advisory (2019) and in the Gold Cup (2020) but not so good after and switched from Nicky Henderson to Polly Gundry. Has to bounce back off 19lb lower.
Won on this card at Aintree three years back. Second in the 2020 Ultima at Cheltenham and 7th in the Ladbrokes Trophy. Back to form, fourth in the Greatwood Gold Cup there last month.
ABDF POKER PARTY
Won the 2019 Kerry National and fourth in the big Christmas chase at Leopardstown that year. Has played no aces since.
ABDG CLASS CONTI
Thyestes Chase second and third (2020-21); 15th in last year’s National
ABE (L) FREEWHEELIN DYLAN
Irish National winner a year ago as 150-1 shot, 463-1 on BETDAQ XSP. He’s 10lb higher now) and has failed to complete the course the last twice.
ABEFx COKO BEACH
Beat Run Wild Free and Class Conti in the Thyestes Chase (2021) but lost form with 12lb rise and only sixth in same race in January.
Fourth and 6th (last year) in the Grand National but 13 years old now, and the last winner of that age was in 1923. Back to form with 3m 4f win as part of heavy-ground double at Haydock in December.
ABE DE RASHER COUNTER
Won 2019 Ladbrokes Trophy off his current mark but long breaks after pulled up in Midlands Grand National (tendon injury). Careful run back in Denman Chase in February.
AB TOP VILLE BEN
Graded chase winner and placed three times. Fell heavily 12th fence in last year’s National.
Cheltenham cross-country double 2019-20 when trained David Cottin, including defeat of Tiger Roll in the big one at the festival. Three times pulled up this year for Jonjo O’Neill but now 17lb lower than when last showed his form.
BC (L)+ CARIBEAN BOY
Useful novice for Nicky Henderson from David Cottin: beat Fiddlerontheroof at Newbury. Seventh in the Plate at Cheltenham (2021) but won only a small race since.
BC+ PHOENIX WAY
Lightly raced runner-up in Ascot Silver Cup and won there in January but heavy fall the last day
Second to Faugheen before winning novices’ chase at Cheltenham Festival in 2019-20. Won only 1-10 since but blinkers and cheekpieces now removed.
BD DINGO DOLLAR
Fifth in 2019 Ladbrokes Trophy; pulled up 2020 National when with Alan King. Third in the 2021 Scottish National and the Rehearsal Chase in the autumn for Sandy Thomson
BD NOBLE YEATS
Inexperienced seven-year-old, well bred for stamina.
Trainer states No 41 DEATH DUTY runs instead of Battleoverdoyen. Currently missing the cut at No 42 Domaine de L’Isle, 43 Eclair Surf, 44 Fortescue, 45 Commodore, 46 School Boy Hours, 47 Romain De Senam.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE: 9.4 Snow Leopardess, 9.8 Delta Work, 12.5 Any Second Now, 15 Escaria Ten, 16 Fiddlerontheroof, 17 Enjoy D’Allen, 18.5 Longhouse Poet, 23 Burrows Saint, 24 Minella Times, 27 Farclas, 28 Run Wild Fred, 35 Cloth Cap, 43 Good Boy Bobby, 45 Death Duty, 49 Discorama, 62 Mount Ida, 62 Mighty Thunder, 122 Anibale Fly, 160 Agusta Gold.
⭕ 4.15 Leopardstown Johnny Murtagh’s impressive Irish Lincolnshire winner, Raadabarg, looked sure to step up from that, and we find out quickly with this Listed target whether he will be able to mix it in the Pattern.
He rattled off a hat-trick in the first six weeks of the 2021 season so should keep his form all right.
Pearls Galore, who preps for the Lockinge, needed a run at the start of last season but the stable’s had a winner and third from its two runners at the turn of the month.
Top-rated Cadillac is a Group-2 winner for Jessica Harrington on today’s track and took the Group-3 International Stakes at the Curragh starting out last season.
Cadillac (BETDAQ 3.8) won here on debut and then had a break before narrowly beaten in the Futurity by the subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Mac Swiney. Seems sure to go well again fresh.
⭕ 6.00 Kempton Jungle Run is 6lb well in and, as a front-runner going for his hat-trick at 2.35 on BETDAQ, is reckoned a back-and-lay bet.
⭕ 8.30 Kempton Wild Crusade is cover for my earlier stakes with a 10 will win you 8 nap.
4.15 Leopardstown (win 10)
BET 3.5pts win CADILLAC
6.00 Kempton (win 6)
BET 4.5pts win JUNGLE RUN
8.30 Kempton (win 8, nap)
BET 10pts win WILD CRUSADE
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