SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s European games between MAINZ v BAYERN MUNICH, REAL MADRID v ESPANYOL and ATHLETIC BILBAO v ATLETICO MADRID all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MAINZ V BAYERN MUNICH
2.30pm It’s been a fantastic in Europe with the Champions League and Europa League Semi-Finals, and we head into another interesting domestic weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! I suppose we’re at the stage of the season now when we have a few dead rubbers because teams have already won the title or gained a top four position, or even got relegated. It’s really about picking the value prices based on what you expect mentally from the teams, and also team selection has a big impact too. It can be a tricky time of the season, but it can also bring a lot of value at the right times. This is one of those games as Bayern Munich have already won the Bundesliga title – with Dortmund struggling a little this season, there was never really a title challenge either. Perhaps when the crunch came in the Champions League, Bayern were found a little short in big game pressure. They are that far ahead in Germany that they simply don’t face pressure and there aren’t many big games. I feel Bayern should almost stop trying to buy the top players from the clubs around them in Germany – a better title race might actually benefit them in the Champions League and they would still win the Bundesliga anyway!
It will be interesting to see how Bayern finish the season now after getting knocked out of the Champions League and securing the Bundesliga. I would expect them to play an even more open game than usual, and their games will more than likely be packed with goals. I know Bayern effectively have “nothing to play for” here, but Bayern is a club full of pride and I wouldn’t expect a big drop off in their performances. That’s why I was surprised to see 1.57 when I clicked into the market. This seems the perfect time to take on Mainz who come into this fixture in poor form. They are without a win in their last five games, and they were hammered 5-0 by Wolfsburg last weekend who are having a bad season and just looking at their xG figures you can see that they are having a bad run at the moment. When you’re conceding as many chances as Mainz are at the moment, Bayern are the last side who want to meet. I am very tempted by some bigger prices in the handicap or goal markets, but the 1.57 looks massive on Bayern and I’m happy to have a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Mainz at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiBay
REAL MADRID V ESPANYOL
3.15pm Next we move to La Liga as Real Madrid host Espanyol. This will be an interesting market. Real Madrid are obviously heavy favourites but I wouldn’t be surprised if they had two eyes, never mind one, on their second leg of the Champions League Semi-Final against Manchester City next week. They player out a very entertaining 4-3 loss on Tuesday night, but they would have probably accepted a one goal defeat at the start of the game. They are still bang in the tie, and they will fancy their chances at home next week. Whether or not they are good enough to beat Manchester City is another question, but they won’t be unhappy with where they stand. I have to say after seeing the first leg I would be surprised if Real Madrid got through, but you never know with Manchester City – they do have no Champions League history and it takes a while to deal with those high pressure situations. It was another great weekend last week for Real Madrid – results went their way and they now have a 15 point advantage at the top of La Liga. With only five games left in the season they can lift the La Liga title here – but I would definitely keep an eye on the team news here, basically the La Liga title is already won, so while they can confirm it today I wouldn’t be surprised to see some changes.
From a trading point of view, you’d definitely want to keep a close eye on the team news – I’m sure there will be some moment. The 1.48 on Real looks a little short considering what a big game they have next week, but Espanyol are a very poor side away from home. They have only managed eight points from their 16 games on the road this season – that puts them in the bottom three. Espanyol’s performances have been very up-and-down this season, one moment they are brilliant and the next dismal, but the general theme is they just don’t perform away from home. I can understand why Real Madrid will be a popular bet at 1.48 here, but I’m happy to sit that one out – I feel it’s hard to argue that they should be shorter, and they could easily drift on team news too. I feel it’s worth having a small bet on under 2.5 goals here at 2.26. Real won’t want a stressful second half here given the big game with City in a few days, and I can see them going through the motions if they have the lead. The longer Espanyol can bring on the better, but I see a quiet first half and then Real grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 win in the second. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 either – all Madrid eyes will be on next week.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaEsp
ATHLETIC BILBAO V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish the day as Athletic Bilbao host Atletico Madrid. Unlike the Real Madrid game earlier in the day, this is a huge game in the race for the European spots. Atletico Madrid currently sit in fourth position with a four point advantage over Real Betis, while Athletic Bilbao started the weekend sitting in eighth place four points behind Villarreal. Athletic Bilbao’s plan will be Villarreal to drop points this weekend as they focus on their Champions League Semi-Final and win here to close the gap to 7th. With Real Betis winning the Copa Del Rey there will be an extra European spot available this season. Real Betis won’t have given up on fourth place either to get into the Champions League! Atletico dropped points again last weekend, but thankfully for them Real Betis dropped points too. We should have a very close game here, and it’s no surprise at all to see a very open market. Indeed, it is the most open market of the day in La Liga.
Atletico haven’t played badly this season, but they have conceded a lot of sloppy goals and they are not getting over the line in their games. The xG table put them in second at times this season, especially in 2021 and really and truly they shouldn’t be in a battle for fourth but here we are. Once again they had to settle for a draw against Granada in their last game but bossed the game – it finished 0-0 but the xG figures read 1.81 to 0.18 to Atletico! Although the results haven’t gone their way, Atletico are still playing some decent football and I feel they are worth backing here at 2.7. I’m definitely happy to keep stakes small as we should have a close game, but Bilbao have a couple of players out through injury and suspension which has to change their defence and midfield. That can be the edge that wins a very tight game. Atletico welcome back Felipe and Knodogbia too but I know they have a few out with injury too. I’m happy with a small stake, but Atletico should create more chances here and can grind out a very close win.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Atletico Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthAtl