THE STRIKER Sat: Premier League Preview

THE STRIKER Sat: Premier Leaguer Preview

PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action starts at 12.30pm with NEWCASTLE v LIVERPOOL.


NEWCASTLE V LIVERPOOL

12.30pm It’s another huge Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have four games kicking off at 3pm, and then the two TV games might see huge drama in the title race with Liverpool and Manchester City both away today. We start the day with Newcastle hosting Liverpool, and while there is clearly a huge gulf in class between the sides here Newcastle do come into the game off the back of four straight wins. They have nothing to lose at the moment, and I’m sure their fans will make them at least “have a go” at Liverpool. To be honest though, having an open game will probably play right into the hands of Liverpool and that will spell trouble for Newcastle. Jurgen Klopp’s side have been immense going forward this season – they have created so many chances and at the moment you just wonder how sides are going to stop Liverpool at the moment. Villarreal did a good job of that in the first half midweek in the Champions League, but Liverpool went up a gear in the second half to win 2-0 and Villarreal had no answers. Villarreal were able to nullify Bayern Munich to some extent in the Champions League but they had no answers to Liverpool and finished the game with an xG of just 0.05.

I wasn’t expecting to see Liverpool trading as big as 1.43 when I clicked into the market. I thought we’d see them in the 1.3’s and I’m very happy to take the 1.43 on Liverpool. I’m pretty confident on the win here, and would recommend putting them in any BETDAQ Multiple this weekend. While I am confident on Liverpool winning – they won’t be a Max Bet for two small reasons. The first is that this fixture comes in between Liverpool’s Champions League Semi-Final and while they have a 2-0 advantage in that, I do feel they will have that in the back of their mind – I know every game is massive in the title race at the moment but if ever there was a time Klopp decided to rest a player it would be between the Champions League Semi-Final in my opinion. And the second is Newcastle are in good form at the moment; they aren’t there for the taking and Liverpool will have to play well to win – of course I fully expect this Liverpool side to outclass Newcastle here, but Newcastle aren’t push overs at the moment so I feel four points is the right stake instead of five. This 1.43 is too big to ignore, and hopefully we start the weekend on a winning note!

The Striker Says:
Four points win Liverpool to beat Newcastle at 1.43 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewLiv

MATCH STATS

● Newcastle are winless in 10 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D4 L6), since a 2-0 victory in December 2015.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last four Premier League away games against Newcastle (W2 D2) – only once have they gone five league games without defeat at St James’ Park, doing so between September 1961 and May 1969.
● Just one of the 53 Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Liverpool have been drawn 0-0. Of all fixtures to have been played at least 40 times in the competition, only Newcastle vs Tottenham Hotspur has finished goalless on fewer occasions (0/54).
● Liverpool have won eight Premier League games against Newcastle after conceding the first goal, at least double the amount they’ve won versus any other side. Indeed, each of their last three victories over the Magpies have seen them concede the first goal within the opening seven minutes.
● Newcastle have won each of their last four Premier League games, keeping three clean sheets in that run. The Magpies haven’t won five consecutive Premier League games since November 2014 under Alan Pardew, a run that included a 1-0 home win against Liverpool.
● This is the latest into a season Newcastle are playing a game when starting the day in the top half of the table since their final game of 2017-18 (10th – 3-0 v Chelsea). This despite the Magpies having spent 150 days in the relegation zone this term.
● Liverpool have taken 37 points from their last 39 available in the Premier League (W12 D1 L0), keeping 10 clean sheets in that run. The Reds’ only dropped points in these 13 games came in a 2-2 draw at league leaders Manchester City.
● Liverpool have scored a league-high 14 headed goals in the Premier League this season. It’s the fourth consecutive campaign they’ve scored 14+ headers, with their 65 in total since the start of 2018-19 at least 18 more than any other side.
● Bruno Guimarães has been involved in four goals in his last three Premier League appearances for Newcastle, scoring three and assisting one. Despite only making his debut for the club in February, only Allan Saint-Maximin (5) and Callum Wilson (6) have scored more Premier League goals for Newcastle this season than Guimarães (4).
● No player has both scored and assisted in more different Premier League games this season than Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (6). No Liverpool player has ever scored and assisted in seven different games in a single Premier League campaign.


ASTON VILLA V NORWICH

3pm We start the 3pm games with Aston Villa hosting Norwich. We have four very interesting games kicking off at 3pm, and three extremely competitive markets. Villa are the only odds on favourites – heavy odds on favourites at 1.42 – and they should get the job done here. I have to say when you compare the Aston Villa price to the Liverpool price in the 12-30pm kick off, I’d much prefer to be on Liverpool at a tick bigger! I know Norwich have been poor this season, but Villa haven’t been fantastic and they come into this fixture without a win in their last five. They broke a run of four losing games with a 0-0 draw away to Leicester last weekend, but Leicester have been very average in the Premier League this season. That 0-0 had very few chances, and you could suggest Villa were marginally the better side but there wasn’t much in it – not enough to suggest a 0-0 draw wasn’t a fair result anyway. I know I’ve said this before, but for me Villa aren’t an impressive side – they don’t create many chances and in my opinion Gerrard hasn’t improved them much. He definitely gave them a boost in morale, but they have been poor in general this season. They aren’t bad enough to be close to a relegation fight but you couldn’t see them being a top ten side any time soon. They will hang around 12th to 16th for a few seasons in my opinion.

I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.42 on Villa here – unlike Liverpool I would avoid that price for your BETDAQ Multiples this weekend. I don’t want to lay them because I’m not going to support Norwich in the markets here given their form, but that’s definitely a price to watch rather than back. I feel the value is in the goals market here – since relegation looked certain for Norwich they have been playing an open game. Their recent games have had lots of goals – even in the 0-0 draw against Brighton we had a host of chances of Brighton and they finished the game with an xG of 2.86. I do worry about Villa creating a lot, but I also feel Norwich will play open at the back and we could see an end-to-end game with plenty of mistakes. Over 2.5 goals is worth a bet at 1.75, but I would keep stakes reasonably limited.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstNov

MATCH STATS

● Aston Villa have won seven of their last eight Premier League games against Norwich, with the exception being a 2-0 defeat at Carrow Road in December 2015.
● Since winning their first Premier League away game against Aston Villa in November 1992 (3-2), Norwich are winless in their last eight top-flight visits to Villa Park (D3 L5).
● Aston Villa have won their last four Premier League matches against Norwich City, last winning five in a row against an opponent between October 2005 and April 2010 against rivals Birmingham City.
● Aston Villa have lost four of their last seven Premier League games against sides bottom of the table (W2 D1), more than they had in their first 37 such games (W26 D8 L3). However, they did win their last match against the bottom side, beating Norwich 2-0 in the reverse fixture this season.
● Aston Villa are winless in their last five Premier League games (D1 L4), last having a longer such run between February and July 2020 (10 games).
● The next goal they concede will see Norwich City become the first team to concede 70+ goals in three different Premier League campaigns, with the Canaries previously doing so in 2004-05 (77) and 2019-20 (75).
● Norwich have the fewest shots (327), fewest shots on target (97), lowest shot conversion rate (6.7%) and lowest expected goals total (31.5) of all Premier League sides so far this season.
● Norwich boss Dean Smith is looking to become the first manager to win against Aston Villa in the Premier League after previously having managed them in the competition – no manager has managed to beat the Villans in eight attempts (D2 L6), with Smith (one game), Martin O’Neill (two) and Ron Atkinson (five) all failing.
● Aston Villa’s Emiliano Buendía played for Norwich in the 2019-20 Premier League campaign, ranking fourth for most chances created that season. He could become the sixth player to score a Premier League goal against Norwich having previously played for them in the competition, after Chris Sutton, Efan Ekoku, Ruel Fox, Harry Kane and Nathan Redmond.
● Teemu Pukki has been involved in 59% of Norwich’s 22 Premier League goals this season (10 goals, 3 assists), the highest share of any player. However, just 30% of his league goals this term have come away from home (3/10).


SOUTHAMPTON V CRYSTAL PALACE

3pm Next we have three very open markets, and we start with Southampton hosting Crystal Palace. It’s easy to see why we have an open market here – this is your classic “coming to the end of the season” fixture and you’re guessing who will be “up for it” more. There’s nothing between these sides in the table as they sit next to each other, and it’s hard to see much between them on the pitch either. We had an entertaining 2-2 when the sides met earlier in the season, and I’m sure the draw will be a popular bet here. I have been against Crystal Palace in recent weeks – I felt they would have a drop off after getting knocked out of the FA Cup at the Semi-Final stage. Given they can’t achieve anything in the Premier League, they were always going to focus on that FA Cup run and although they played OK they were totally outclassed by Chelsea. Although I expect a hangover and they haven’t won in two games, they actually haven’t played badly. They were the better side against Leeds and while it must have been hard to face Newcastle after the FA Cup loss, it was a pretty even game and they were just edged out.

Although we should see a close game here, I feel it’s worth backing Crystal Palace at 3.15. Southampton have been pretty poor lately, and when you look at their form you can see that they are there for the taking. Obviously it’s a worry that Palace have now gone four games without a win if you include the loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup but they are also clearly playing the better football. It is tempting to lay Southampton because although we have an open market, the 2.52 looks much too short in my opinion – I would have the sides closer together in the betting, possibly even Crystal Palace marginal favourites. Southampton have conceded xG figures of 2.04, 2.77, 1.73, 4.66 and 1.66 in their last five games. They have been giving away chances for fun recently – they “got away with it” against Arsenal and Brighton, and the 3.15 is just too big to ignore on Palace here. They are you classic mid-table average Premier League side, but they have been good going forward this season and they can take advantage of Southampton’s poor form here.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouCry

MATCH STATS

● Southampton have won 56% of their 25 Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W14 D7 L4) – of all sides they’ve faced at least 10 times in the competition, only against Swansea (58%) do they have a higher win rate.
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their 12 Premier League away games against Southampton (D3 L8), winning 2-1 in January 2018. The Eagles have never kept an away clean sheet against Saints in the competition.
● Crystal Palace have opened the scoring in five of their last six Premier League games against Southampton, losing 2-0 in the other. However, the Eagles have gone on to win just one of those five (D3 L1).
● Southampton have conceded 19 goals in their last eight Premier League games, conceding at least twice on six occasions in that run (W1 D2 L5). Saints’ only win and clean sheet in this time was a 1-0 home victory against Arsenal.
● Crystal Palace have failed to score in seven different Premier League away games this season, with only three teams failing in more. However, the Eagles have lost just one of their nine league games when scoring on the road this term (W3 D5).
● Crystal Palace have drawn 14 Premier League games this season, with no side having more (Brighton also 14). Only in 1992-93 (16) have the Eagles drawn more in a single Premier League campaign.
● Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has scored six goals in 13 Premier League appearances against Southampton – only against Chelsea and Sunderland (7 each) has he netted more. The Belgian is without a goal in his last 11 Premier League games, though only three of those were starts.
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse is enjoying his best ever scoring season in the Premier League, with nine goals so far this term. However, just one of those nine goals has come at St Mary’s Stadium.
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored more goals from outside the box than any other player in the Premier League this season (5), with only Matt Le Tissier ever netting more in a single season for Saints (7 in 1993-94, 8 in 1994-95). Four of these goals have been from direct free-kicks, with only David Beckham in 2000-01 and Laurent Robert in 2001-02 (both 5) netting more in a single Premier League campaign.
● Crystal Palace have won 50% of their games in all competitions with Jean-Philippe Mateta starting this season (8/16), compared to just 17% when the Frenchman doesn’t start (4/23).


WATFORD V BURNLEY

3pm Another huge game in the relegation battle here as Watford host Burnley. It was a fantastic weekend last week for Burnley as they finally got out of the bottom three with a win over Wolves. They recorded two huge back-to-back wins against Southampton and Wolves when Everton had a difficult fixture list. That was their time to strike, and they have taken their chance with both games. Everton still have a game in hand on Burnley and Burnley are just two points ahead, so the pressure is still most certainly on. When you look at this game, you have to say that this is a must win game. They simply have to beat this Watford side. Watford have been so average this season – they will be going down to the Championship and if Burnley are going to stay up this season they have to win games like this. Everton also have another very tough fixture this weekend as they play Chelsea on Sunday. A win here for Burnley could see them suddenly have a five point advantage by the end of the weekend! I know we all knew Everton’s fixture list to end the season was tough, but the turnaround has been very quick – imagine if Everton didn’t beat Manchester United too!

There was a lot of blowback on Burnley when they pulled the trigger to sack Sean Dyche. He was there for so long, and while it looked like a panic decision at the time when you look the Burnley performances you have to say that it was the right decision. I always like to good at the performances from the squad after the manager is sacked as that gives you a reflection of what was happening or what was wrong. Burnley have been creating a lot of chances since he was sacked, and that shows something was wrong while he was there. It’s been the opposite at Manchester United and Everton this season for example – the blame rests on the players at those clubs. It’s easy to understand why we have an open market here with Watford having home advantage, but I feel Burnley are playing their best football of the season at the moment and they are very much worth supporting against this average Watford side. We’ve landed some nice bets in Burnley games recently, and we can continue here.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Burnley to beat Watford at 2.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WatBur

MATCH STATS

● After winning their first Premier League home game against Burnley in February 2017, Watford are winless in their last three against the Clarets at Vicarage Road (D1 L2).
● Burnley have won five of their nine Premier League games against Watford (56%). Of sides they’ve faced at least five times in the competition, only against Bournemouth (75%) and Hull (67%) do they have a better win rate.
● Watford have failed to score in their last four league games against Burnley; they last failed to score in five in a row against an opponent vs Reading (2004-2006), while the last team Burnley registered five consecutive clean sheets against was Charlton (2013-2016).
● This is both Watford and Burnley’s 300th Premier League match, with Wolverhampton Wanderers also reaching that milestone today. It’s just the second time two sides are meeting in their 300th game in the competition, after Everton 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur in January 2000.
● Watford have lost each of their last 10 Premier League home games – no side in top-flight history has ever lost 11 consecutive home league games before.
● Watford have conceded in each of their last 21 Premier League home games. The last team to have a longer run without a home top-flight clean sheet were Queens Park Rangers (22 games between August 1968 and August 1973).
● Burnley have won their last two Premier League games, last winning three in a row in April 2019. This is their first league game when starting the day outside the relegation zone since August, and a 2-0 loss to Liverpool in their second match of the season.
● 21% of Burnley’s Premier League goals this season have come in the opening 15 minutes of games (6/29), the highest share in the division. However, the Clarets have scored a league-low 7% of their goals in the final 15 minutes this term (2/29).
● Burnley are unbeaten in their three Premier League games under Michael Jackson so far (W2 D1). The last manager to remain unbeaten in their first four league games in charge of the Clarets was Owen Coyle in 2007, while no manager has ever stayed unbeaten in their first four top-flight games with Burnley.
● Burnley’s Dwight McNeil has had more shots (42) and more shots on target (12) without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season. The last player to have more attempts on target without finding the net in a single season was Jesús Navas in 2014-15 (17).


WOLVES V BRIGHTON

3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Brighton. This is another game much like Southampton v Crystal Palace in the sense that you’re trying to gauge which side will be more “up for it” as we come to the end of the season. Wolves have more to play for than Brighton, as they shouldn’t give up on that 7th spot – they are only three points behind West Ham at the moment and there will be more European spots this season given who won the Cups – plus West Ham are busy in the Europa League Semi-Final at the moment too so this could be a good chance to close the gap this weekend. Brighton will have their own little battle to break into the top ten as they start the weekend in 11th – that would be a great achievement for them given they were in a relegation battle last season but obviously it depends on the mentality of the players how much effort they put in at this stage of the season. From a betting point of view, it’s always nice to find teams who ease off a little at this stage of the season so I will be watching all the mid-table sides closely at the moment.

Brighton were unlucky not to beat Southampton last weekend and had to settle for a 2-2 draw. You can forgive any side losing away to Manchester City, and prior to that they had beaten Spurs and Arsenal, and were very unlucky not to beat Norwich. Wolves come into the game having lost to Newcastle and Burnley – you might say both of those games were away and this is at home, but they have been playing poor football for a while now. Their xG figures read 0.65, 0.28, 1.95 (conceded 2.52), 1.07 and 0.75. They just haven’t been creating a lot this season, and I can definitely see Brighton creating more. It’s always a worry with Brighton as to whether or not they take their chances, but I am confident that they are playing the better football here and that they are the better side. Once again we have a very open market, but Wolves are marginal favourites and I don’t agree with that – I’d have Brighton as favourites and I’m happy to take the 2.92.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Wolves at 2.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolBri

MATCH STATS

● Wolves have won their last two league games against Brighton, as many as they had in their previous 16 against them. They’re looking to complete the league double over the Seagulls for the first time.
● Brighton won each of their first six away league games against Wolves between 1979 and 1991. However, since then the Seagulls have won just one of their 11 league visits to Molineux (D7 L3), winning 2-0 in April 2017.
● 22 of Wolves’ Premier League games this season have been settled by a margin of just one goal (W11 L11) – only three teams have ever had more in a 38-game campaign; Everton in 2002-03 (23), Fulham in 2005-06 (24) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (24).
● Wolves are on the longest current run of Premier League games without a draw, with none of their 15 games in 2022 so far ending level (W8 L7).
● Brighton have earned seven points from their last four Premier League games (W2 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 11 (W1 D4 L6).
● With 18 goals scored and 16 conceded for Wolves at home this season, no ground has seen fewer Premier League goals than Molineux (34). However, half of these strikes have come in the last five games at the stadium (17/34).
● Only Watford (8) have had fewer different goalscorers in the Premier League than Brighton this season (9, excluding own goals).
● No player has been booked more often in the Premier League this season than Brighton’s Yves Bissouma, who has been yellow carded 10 times in just 22 appearances. He’s the first ever Brighton player to be booked 10 times in a single Premier League campaign.
● Wolves’ Jonny has scored in each of his last two Premier League home games – the only Wolves player to score in three in a row at Molineux is Henri Camara, who did four between April and May 2004.
● Raúl Jiménez is Wolves’ top scorer in the Premier League this season with six goals – no side has a lower scoring top scorer in the competition this term than Wolves.


LEEDS V MANCHESTER CITY

5.30pm We finish a cracking day with Leeds hosing Manchester City. The market is very confident on a City win here as they trade 1.32 at the time of writing – that’s the type of price I expected to see Liverpool trading today too. From that point of view, I’d choose Liverpool over City today, but I’d expect to see both sides win. The only thing you’d say about Leeds here is that they are unbeaten in their last five and given they have put a bit of distance between themselves and the relegation battle at the moment between Burnley and Everton, they should come here with confidence. That being said, they had a reasonably easy fixture list lately and of course Manchester City are on a different planet to Leeds. With Burnley away to Watford today and Everton having a game in hand over Leeds, they could get dragged back into the relegation fight if results go against them this weekend. I fully expect a City win here, so Burnley could jump ahead of Leeds in the table if they managed to beat Watford earlier. I would fully recommend City for any BETDAQ Multiple this weekend, but I’m not going to tip them here at 1.32 – I’m happy to look to the side markets for some value, and I feel it’s a case of how many goals can City score here rather than will they win.

City arrive into here this fixture in superb goal scoring form too. They were involved in a seven goal thriller midweek against Real Madrid in the Champions League, and then put five past Watford last weekend. Leeds like to play an open game themselves, and we could get another very entertaining game involving City here! Leeds played out a 0-0 draw last weekend against Crystal Palace, but you very rarely see a 0-0 with Leeds and they still conceded an xG of 1.72. The market is expecting goals here with over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.52 – I can fully understand that price, but I feel this will be a one way traffic win. Any Other Away Win is 4.2 in the Correct Score market and that looks cracking value compared to the under/overs market. I know City have a big Champions League game next week and they could easily have their eye on that towards the second half, but I expect a very open game here between these two. Leeds don’t know any other way, and if you give this City side room there’s only one outcome and that’s goals!

The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Away Win Correct Score at 4.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeMci

MATCH STATS

● Leeds have lost just two of their last nine home league games against Man City (W6 D1), doing so in consecutive meetings in December 1995 (0-1) and September 2000 (1-2).
● Man City are looking to complete their first league double over Leeds since 1981-82, a season that saw the Whites relegated from the top-flight.
● Man City won the reverse fixture 7-0 against Leeds – there are three occasions of the Citizens scoring 10+ goals against an opponent within a single Premier League season; Watford in 2019-20 (12), Norwich in 2011-12 (11) and Tottenham in 2013-14 (11).
● Leeds are winless in their last six home league games against reigning top-flight champions (D2 L4), since beating Arsenal 1-0 in May 1999 and effectively costing the Gunners the title that season.
● Leeds have conceded at least once in each of their last nine Premier League home games, since a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace in November. Only Watford (21) are on a longer run without a home clean sheet among current Premier League sides.
● Leeds are looking to keep three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since August 2002, the third game of which back then was a 3-0 home win against Manchester City.
● After a run of seven defeats and one draw in eight Premier League games, Leeds are now unbeaten in their last five. They last went six without defeat in April 2021, a run which included a victory over Manchester City.
● Manchester City remain unbeaten away from home in the Premier League since a 1-0 loss at Tottenham on the opening weekend (W12 D3 since). The Citizens have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four on the road – they’ve never gone five consecutive away league games without conceding before.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in eight goals in his last six Premier League appearances, scoring four and assisting four, while teammate Riyad Mahrez has been involved in 12 goals in his last nine starts in the competition (8 goals, 4 assists).
● Gabriel Jesus’ four goals and one assist against Watford last time out saw the Man City forward overtake Philippe Coutinho into second place (behind only Roberto Firmino) as the Brazilian with the most Premier League goal involvements (86 – 57 goals, 29 assists). He’s been involved in 15 goals in 17 Premier League starts this season (7 goals, 8 assists).

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