THE STRIKER Thurs: Premier League Preview

THE STRIKER Thurs: Premier League Preview

Reading Time: 9 mins

THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Thursday’s Premier League games between LEICESTER v TOTTENHAM, CHELSEA v EVERTON and LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.


LEICESTER V TOTTENHAM

7.30pm We finish the midweek Premier League fixture list on Thursday and we have plenty of talking points from the three games on BETDAQ Betting Exchange tonight! We have two massive favourites in the shape of Chelsea and Liverpool, however we start the evening with Leicester hosting Spurs. Leicester got back to winning ways with a nice 4-0 win over Newcastle last weekend, however we have to remember that Newcastle sit in the bottom three and we can’t get carried away with that win. Leicester have been pretty average this season, and I don’t feel they should be as short as 2.14 here. The situation is obviously made tricky with the outbreak of Covid19 in the Spurs camp – they have missed two games and you have to question the fitness level after that. How long will it take players and teams to recover is always something I wonder. That question makes this a game for small stakes for me, but I still feel Leicester are too short nonetheless.

I know Spurs have had a lot of issues this season, but they have seemed to improve under Conte. They haven’t had a tough fixture list however, so the jury is still definitely out. However, since the boring 0-0 draw with Everton they have created xG figures of 2.48, 2.43 and 2.14. I’m ignoring the Europa Conference League game because I don’t think they care about that tournament! Leeds and Brentford haven’t been playing too badly, but Leicester are a step up on them. You don’t become a good team over night, as I’m sure Conte is learning at Spurs, and I’m not getting excited about the Newcastle win for Leicester. I feel Spurs can get a result here, but after the Covid19 outbreak I’m happy to keep stakes small.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Tottenham at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeitot

MATCH STATS

● Leicester have won two of their last four Premier League games against Tottenham (L2), as many as they had in their previous 12 against them (D3 L7).
● Tottenham won this exact fixture 4-2 in May last season, last winning back-to-back away league games against Leicester in October 2003/December 2014.
● Since Leicester returned to the Premier League in 2014, their 14 meetings with Tottenham have produced 54 goals – only Arsenal vs Liverpool (62) and Crystal Palace vs Liverpool (55) have seen more goals scored in the competition in that time.
● Leicester have lost just one of their last eight midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W4 D3), going down 2-1 at Chelsea in May. The Foxes have won their last two Premier League games on a Thursday, this after having failed to win any of their first five such games in the competition beforehand (D3 L2).
● Tottenham have lost five of their last eight away midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W2 D1), more than they had in their previous 21 such games in the competition (W13 D4 L4).
● Leicester have won both of their last two home games in the Premier League, scoring four goals each time. The Foxes last won more in a row in the competition from August-December 2019 (run of seven), while they last scored 4+ goals in three straight home league matches in February 1961.
● Tottenham Hotspur have failed to score in either of their last two away Premier League games, managing just 15 shots combined in those games. They haven’t gone three without a goal on the road since March 2014 under Tim Sherwood.
● Tottenham were averaging 0.9 goals-per-game in the Premier League under Nuno Espírito Santo this season, with that average doubling to 1.8 under Antonio Conte so far.
● James Maddison has been directly involved in six goals in his last four Premier League appearances (three goals, three assists), both scoring and assisting in both of his last two at the King Power Stadium. He’s the first Leicester player ever to both score and assist in back-to-back home games in the Premier League, while the last player to score and assist in three straight home appearances for any side in the division was Leroy Sané in October 2017.
● In his entire club career, Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored more goals against Leicester in all competitions than he has vs any other side (17 in 16 games). 11 of these have come in his last eight appearances against them, including a four-goal haul at the King Power Stadium in May 2018, with that match also being played on a Thursday.


CHELSEA V EVERTON

7.45pm There was a time that this would be a headline fixture as Everton would be a tough side to beat for the Top Four sides, but their level has dropped so much in recent seasons that this should be a routine win for Chelsea. The market is confident on a home win, and Chelsea are trading 1.26 at the time of writing. After recording a huge win against Arsenal after getting hammered by Liverpool to ease the pressure on Rafa Benitez, Everton took a huge step backwards last weekend with a 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace. They looked very dis-jointed and that usually means the manager is in trouble. It’s hard to expect much from Everton here as let’s be honest, Chelsea should win, but another loss would just pile more pressure on Benitez. It feels like the writing is on the wall to be honest, and it’s been a big fall from grace for him – when he signed I felt that was a big signing for Everton given how backwards they have gone in recent years, and now he’s going to get sacked! I’m not sure where he goes from here.

While it hasn’t been a good run for Chelsea lately, they recorded a much needed win over Leeds at the weekend with a 3-2 win. They were lucky as they got too penalties which weren’t stone wall penalty. There’s was probably more questions than answers after that performance, and Chelsea have probably put four questionable performances together now. They were lucky to beat Watford, lost to West Ham, drew to Zenit and then the Leeds win. I would really fancy taking them on if they faced a better side here! As it is, I feel the value is in the goals market here. Both sides have saw plenty of goals in their recent games, especially Chelsea who have conceded seven goals in their last three in all competitions. Over 2.5 goals is 1.78 and that looks the best value option here – if we see a heavy defeat for Everton could Bentiez be sacked by Christmas?

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCheeve

MATCH STATS

● Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 26 Premier League home games against Everton (W15 D11) since a 1-0 loss in November 1994. If they avoid defeat here, it would equal their longest ever unbeaten home run against an opponent in their league history (27 vs Spurs between 1990 and 2016).
● Everton have won three of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L2), as many as they had in their previous 15 against them. However, all of these victories have come at Goodison Park.
● After beating Liverpool in all three meetings in all competitions in the 1984-85 campaign, Everton are winless in their last 12 competitive matches against reigning European champions (D4 L8). They lost both such meetings against Chelsea the last time the Blues were champions of Europe in 2012-13.
● Of all teams to play more than one Premier League game on Thursdays, Chelsea have the best win rate on this specific weekday in the competition, winning seven of their 11 such games (64%).
● After losing four of their first five Thursday games in the Premier League between 1996 and 2015 (D1), Everton are unbeaten in their last five played on this day in the competition (W2 D3).
● Chelsea have conceded eight goals in their last three games in all competitions, as many as they had in their previous 18 combined. Meanwhile, the Blues are looking to avoid conceding 2+ goals in four consecutive games in all competitions for the first time since September 2016.
● Everton are winless in six away league games (D1 L5), losing each of their last four in a row. The Toffees last lost five in a row on the road in the Premier League in March 2018, while manager Rafael Benítez last suffered five straight away league defeats in November 2006 with former side Liverpool.
● Chelsea striker Romelu Lukaku is Everton’s highest ever goalscorer in the Premier League, netting 68 goals for the Toffees between 2013 and 2017. The Belgian has netted just once in his five appearances against Everton in the competition, doing so with Manchester United in September 2017.
● No manager to have previously taken charge of Chelsea in the Premier League has ever won away against the Blues in the competition, drawing six and losing 13 of their 19 such visits. Everton boss Rafael Benítez has lost both of his such games at Stamford Bridge in the competition.
● Chelsea’s Mason Mount has scored in each of his last three Premier League games, and a goal here would see him become the youngest player to score in four in a row for the Blues in the competition.


LIVERPOOL V NEWCASTLE

8pm We finish the evening with the shortest price of the week as Liverpool host Newcastle. Although Newcastle lost 4-0 at the weekend against Leicester, with Norwich and Watford losing and Burnley drawing, not a lot has changed. At the moment, it definitely looks like there will be a bottom four of Watford, Norwich, Burnley and Newcastle will only one staying up – I said this at the weekend about Newcastle and I still feel the same – they need to try and collect some points before the transfer window so make coming to the club more appealing to players in the transfer window. Obviously they will be coming for the money on offer, but nobody is going to want to come to a club going down either. Their win over Burnley was massive in that sense, and to be honest they have a free go at this game because nobody will be expecting them to get anything here! They will have more important games in the coming weeks.

With Liverpool in such good form and playing excellent football this season, I feel this is a case of how many goals will Liverpool score rather than will they win. The markets agree with Liverpool trading 1.14! I’m sure we’ll see a shorter price this season, but we won’t see many. Even though Liverpool have looked like they had to grind out two 1-0 wins in their last two Premier League games, they have actually been playing much better than the results. They created an xG of 2.65 against Wolves and then 2.97 against Aston Villa. They look the best team in the league at the moment, and if they can keep everyone fit the title race will be very interesting with Man City! They can cover the handicap here, and the 2.5 goal handicap is worth backing at 2.0. Liverpool have been creating the chances to cover this handicap, they just have to start taking their chances.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool -2.5 goals to beat Newcastle at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivnew

MATCH STATS

● Having lost their first Premier League game against Newcastle under Jürgen Klopp in December 2015, Liverpool are unbeaten in each of their last nine against the Magpies (W5 D4).
● Since winning their first ever Premier League visit to Liverpool in April 1994, Newcastle are winless in their last 25 visits to Anfield (D5 L20). Only against Manchester United have they ever had a longer winless away run in their league history (29 between 1973 and 2012).
● Liverpool have won just one of their six Premier League home games played on Thursdays (2-0 vs Sheffield United in January 2020), losing both such games last season against Burnley and Chelsea.
● Newcastle have won just two of their last 14 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D4 L8), winning 4-1 at Bournemouth in July 2020 and 1-0 against Sheffield United in May last season.
● Liverpool have won 1,999 of their 4,226 top-flight matches (D1047 L1180), and would be the first ever side to win 2,000 English top-flight games with victory here.
● Newcastle have just 10 points from 16 Premier League games this season; when converting to three points per win, only in 1977-78 (eight) have they had as few or fewer at this stage of a league campaign, a season in which they went on to be relegated from the top-flight. Meanwhile, Newcastle have also picked up fewer away points in the Premier League this season than any other side (three), and are one of just two sides yet to win on the road in the division this term (also Burnley).
● After scoring at least twice in 11 consecutive Premier League games, Liverpool have won their last two league matches 1-0. They last had more consecutive 1-0 victories in the competition between May and September 2013 (4 in a row).
● Mohamed Salah has scored in all four of his Premier League home games for Liverpool against Newcastle, netting exactly once each time. Against no side does he have a better 100% scoring record at Anfield in the competition.
● Since taking four points from Liverpool in the 2016-17 season (W1 D1), Newcastle boss Eddie Howe has lost his last six Premier League games against the Reds, by an aggregate score of 19-1.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last 14 Premier League appearances, just one short of Jamie Vardy’s record of 15 set between August and December 2015.


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