TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Tuesday’s Premier League games between BRENTFORD v MANCHESTER UNITED, NORWICH v ASTON VILLA and MANCHESTER CITY v LEEDS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRENTFORD V MANCHESTER UNITED
7.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep on coming and we have another full midweek fixture list this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s been a very busy run to Christmas for the Premier League sides as prior to the Champions League games last week, we also had a full mid-week fixture list! We have an excellent evening ahead, and Tuesday night pretty much has everything. An away side with question marks in Manchester United, an open market with Norwich v Aston Villa and a heavy favourite in Manchester City. We start the evening with Brentford hosting Manchester United and I have to say, this is the most fascinating game of the evening. United managed to grind out a win away to Norwich at the weekend, but they just didn’t play well again. Since Ralf Rangnick took over they have definitely got more solid at the back but they have also created a lot less. Their xG figures since the Arsenal game read 0.89, 1.04 and 2.18 against three average sides. If you take out the 0.8 for the penalty against Norwich, the xG figure isn’t that impressive and especially when you consider how average Norwich have been this season.
This is an interesting game because Brentford have been fantastic at home this season. They have been creating a host of chances and they recorded a deserved win here the weekend against Watford. Despite their good performances here, notably the xG of 2.16 when losing against Chelsea and the 3-3 draw with Liverpool, they have also been unlucky. They lost 2-1 to Norwich here but created an xG of 2.92. I think we’ll have a very good game here – this is the game I’m most looking forward to tonight, however from a betting point of view the United lay jumps off the page at 1.96. I just can’t have United odds on here given the way they have been playing and the Brentford home form. Brentford will likely create more than United too given the new United tactics, and although United have been keeping clean sheets, they are actually still making mistakes at the back. Rangnick can’t fix that quickly! United will have to play very well to win here, and the odds on is a Max Bet lay for me.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Brentford at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBremun
● This is the first league meeting between Brentford and Manchester United since April 1947, a goalless draw at Griffin Park in the top-flight.
● Manchester United won the last time they faced Brentford in any competition, winning a League Cup tie 2-1 at Old Trafford in September 1975 thanks to goals from Lou Macari and Sammy McIlroy.
● Only Liverpool (57) have won a Premier League game in more different stadia than Manchester United (54), with Brentford Community Stadium the 60th different ground at which the Red Devils will have played in the competition.
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last 11 league games played on Tuesdays (W5 D6) since a 2-1 loss at Luton in February 2020.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games against London sides since a 2-0 loss at Arsenal in January 2020. It’s their longest league run without defeat in the capital since a streak of 13 between December 2011 and December 2013
● Manchester United have won 34 of their 56 Premier League games played on Tuesdays, both the most wins and highest win rate (61%) of any side on this day of the week in the competition.
● Two of Brentford’s five Premier League victories this season have been courtesy of 90th minute winners, including their win against Watford last time out. The only side to have had more wins thanks to 90th minute goals in their maiden campaign in the competition were Wigan Athletic (3 in 2005-06).
● Manchester United have won both of their two league games so far under Ralf Rangnick 1-0. No manager in the club’s history has kept a clean sheet in each of their first three league games in charge of the Red Devils.
● All 10 of Brentford’s Premier League home goals have been scored by different players – they’re the first side in the history of the competition to see have their first 10 home goals be scored by 10 different players (excludes own goals).
● Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo has scored seven Premier League goals this season – it’s the most by a player aged 36 and above in a single Premier League campaign since Graham Alexander in 2009-10 (7), while the last such player to net more was Gary Speed in 2006-07 (8).
NORWICH V ASTON VILLA
7.45pm We have the most open market of the night here as Norwich host Aston Villa. Both sides had tough fixtures at the weekend as Norwich played Manchester United and Aston Villa played Liverpool. While Villa may have “only” lost 1-0 to Liverpool, they conceded an xG of 2.97 and the loss should have been bigger. It’s hard to be too tough on them though, not many sides can go to Anfield and play well at the moment with Liverpool in such good form. Although Steven Gerrard has had to play Manchester City and Liverpool within his first few games, he still has the team in a good place and has good momentum. This seems an ideal time to back Aston Villa; however overall their performance level must improve. Gerrard has definitely created a good buzz around the fans and team, but that won’t last forever. Norwich are there for the taking – even with their brief good run of results, they performance level was still pretty poor and they were lucky to win the games they did.
Thankfully for Norwich, Newcastle also lost the weekend and Burnley drew with West Ham, with Watford, Southampton and Leeds are losing – there are plenty still in the mix. It definitely looks like the bottom four are going to stay the bottom four however, which means only one side stays up from Watford, Burnley, Newcastle and Norwich. It’s hard to see that side being Norwich! This is a game for small stakes in my opinion as I don’t overly rate this Aston Villa side, however you have to factor in the opposition here and Norwich have been bang average. Even in the game against Newcastle when they were against ten men for ages, they looked very limited. This good momentum from Gerrard won’t last long in my opinion, but now is a good time to jump on the bandwagon and back Villa against average sides.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa to beat Norwich at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorast
● Norwich have lost six of their last seven Premier League games against Aston Villa, with the exception being a 2-0 home win in December 2015.
● Aston Villa won 5-1 in their last away league game against Norwich in October 2019, having lost each of their previous four at Carrow Road before this (though three of these were in the Championship).
● Norwich have never won a Premier League game on a Tuesday before (D4 L11), with only West Bromwich Albion playing more games on a specific weekday without victory in the competition (32 on Tuesdays).
● Aston Villa have won their last two Premier League games on a Tuesday, though this is their first such match since July 2020 (1-0 vs Arsenal). They last won more consecutively on this weekday in the division between January 2008 and December 2009 (4).
● As well as being the Premier League’s lowest goalscorers this season (8), Norwich have failed to score in a league-high 10 games so far, and have had the fewest shots on target (49) in the division.
● Aston Villa have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League away games, doing so in a 1-0 victory against Manchester United at Old Trafford in September.
● 76% of Aston Villa’s Premier League goals this season have come in the second half of games (16/21), while Norwich have netted a league-low three times after half-time this term.
● Norwich boss Dean Smith was in charge of Aston Villa for 11 Premier League games this season – this will be the 32nd occasion of a manager taking charge of a Premier League match both for and against a side in the same season, and first since Mark Hughes did so for and against Southampton in 2017-18. Smith will be the third manager to take charge for and against Aston Villa in a single Premier League campaign (also Ron Atkinson in 1994-95 and Stuart Gray in 2001-02).
● Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has scored in all three of his Premier League games against Norwich, doing so in September 2015 with Liverpool and in both of Southampton’s games against the Canaries in 2019-20.
● Aston Villa’s Emiliano Buendía played for Norwich between 2018-19 and 2020-21, and was the Canaries’ leading chance creator (83) and assister (7) in his solitary Premier League campaign in that run. He could become the sixth different player to score a Premier League goal against Norwich having previously played for them in the competition, after Chris Sutton, Efan Ekoku, Ruel Fox, Harry Kane and Nathan Redmond.
MANCHESTER CITY V LEEDS
8pm We finish the evening with Manchester City hosting Leeds. The market is fully expecting an easy home win here with City trading as short as 1.16! That’s an exceptionally short price, however it’s not the shortest price of the week as Liverpool host Newcastle on Thursday night! Leeds have had a very tough season, which is their own doing of course by being so bad at the back, however they had put three decent results together and looked to be making progress, only to bump into a fixture list of Chelsea away and then Manchester City away. They actually played very well at the weekend against Chelsea, and got unlucky with the two penalties which looked a little soft based on your view! It’s always going to be very difficult to come here and try to get a result, and it will be interesting to see how Leeds approach the game. Given they are so poor at the back, attacking seems the best option – they seemed to employ that tactic against Chelsea and it didn’t go too badly. If they just sit back here they will get hammered.
I fancied City to run riot at the weekend here against Wolves, but they had to settle for a 1-0 win. They should have scored a lot more with the xG figures finishing at 3.11. That’s just another impressive xG performance from City this season who have been excellent pretty much all season. They have had setbacks of course, but their performance level has always stayed pretty high. As I said above, I’m not sure how Leeds will approach this game tactics wise, but I feel we’ll see a lot of goals in this game. With City trading so short in the match odds market, we have to look to the side markets for some value anyway. I was tempted by the City handicap or Any Other Home Win again in the Correct Score market, but over 3.5 goals looks overpriced at 1.99 – I’m surprised to see that price. Leeds can score here and they will also give City a host of chances. We could easily see a repeat of the Chelsea 3-2 win over Leeds and overs is my bet.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMcilee
● Manchester City are winless in four Premier League games against Leeds (D2 L2) since a 2-1 win at Maine Road under Kevin Keegan in January 2003.
● Leeds won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, scoring with both shots they had across the whole match. They’ve not won consecutive away league games against Man City since 1987, while they haven’t done so in the top-flight since a run of three between 1969 and 1971.
● Leeds have won just one of their last 14 away games against reigning top-flight champions (D5 L8), beating Arsenal 3-2 at Highbury in May 2003.
● Leeds have won just two of their 20 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table (D9 L9). However, both of these wins have come away from home, including a 2-1 victory over Manchester City in their most recent such encounter.
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League home games played on Tuesday (W10 D4), with their last such defeat coming at Maine Road in August 1993 against Blackburn Rovers.
● Since their return to the division last season, Leeds have won six of their seven midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (L1), including winning all five on Tuesdays.
● Manchester City have scored 499 goals in 206 Premier League games under Pep Guardiola – a goal here would see the Spaniard become the manager to see his sides score 500 in the competition in the fewest games from the start of his tenure (currently Jürgen Klopp, 234 games).
● Leeds have scored twice in each of their last two Premier League games, having scored more than once in just two of their first 14 this season. However, they’ve drawn with Brentford (2-2) and lost to Chelsea (2-3) in these games, with West Ham the last side to score at least twice but fail to win 3+ consecutive Premier League matches (4 in a row in March/April 2016).
● Raphinha has scored in four of his five league appearances (80%) on Tuesdays for Leeds United, netting four goals. In the club’s history, the only player to score in as many as 80% of their league appearances on a day of the week (min. 5 games) is Rod Belfitt, who scored in four of his five league games on Wednesdays between 1964 and 1971.
● Joe Gelhardt scored with his first touch in Leeds’ defeat against Chelsea last time out; the last teenager to score in back-to-back Premier League appearances for the Whites was James Milner in December 2002, who did so after coming on as a substitute in both matches versus Sunderland and then Chelsea.