THE STRIKER Weds: Premier League Preview

THE STRIKER Weds: Premier League Preview

Reading Time: 16 mins

WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s Premier League games including EVERTON v LIVERPOOL. All matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.


SOUTHAMPTON V LEICESTER

7.30pm It’s a very busy week in the Premier League with a full midweek fixture list and we have a hectic evening on Wednesday night with six fixtures on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Tonight has it all – short favourites, open markets and a host of talking points! Hopefully we can find some winners. We’ll have a lot of focus on the Merseyside Derby tonight, but we have six very interesting fixtures. We start the evening with Southampton hosting Leicester and we have the most open market of the night here. Both sides were involved in high scoring games at the weekend, however unfortunately for Southampton they were on the wrong end of a 4-0 loss, while Leicester beat Watford 4-2 but they actually conceded an xG of 3.05 in a very “dodgy” performance at the back. They will be happy with the win because they have dropped a lot of points in the Premier League recently, but it doesn’t bring a lot of confidence looking at the underlining numbers.

Southampton suffered at the hand of Liverpool at the weekend, but you can forgive any side that because Liverpool are playing superb football at the moment. I would be more worried about the 2-1 loss to Norwich in their game before that. They have been a little unlucky with their results at times this season, and xG table puts them in 11th for example, but they are definitely on the edge of being in a relegation battle looking at the current table. Southampton at home tend to be very solid, and given Leicester just haven’t been creating a lot of chances this season it’s hard to see them winning here. The market has Southampton as the favourites which is correct, and I’m happy to have a small bet on the draw to start the evening. Leicester have been very average this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a very boring 0-0 here.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSoulei

MATCH STATS

● Southampton have had a player sent off in each of their last three home league games against Leicester – Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in 2018-19, Ryan Bertrand in 2019-20 and Jannik Vestergaard last season.
● After winning just three of their first 38 away league games against Southampton (D14 L21), Leicester have now won on three of their last four visits to St Mary’s (D1) while netting 16 goals in the process.
● So far in 2021, Southampton have lost six of their seven midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), winning the other. Saints have conceded 25 goals in these seven games, including a 9-0 loss at Manchester United in February.
● Southampton’s home games have seen fewer goals scored than any other side in the Premier League this season (9), with Saints scoring five and conceding four in their six games at St Mary’s so far this term.
● Leicester City have both scored and conceded in each of their last 13 Premier League away games (F20 A21) – in Premier League history, only Blackburn have had a longer run of both scoring and conceding in consecutive away games (14 between May 2011 and February 2012).
● Only Norwich (7) have scored fewer Premier League goals than Southampton this season (11), while Saints have failed to win either game in which they scored more than once in the competition this term (2-2 draws vs Newcastle and Burnley).
● Under Ralph Hasenhüttl, Southampton have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per game against Leicester in the Premier League (14 in five games). Only against Manchester United (3.2) have they conceded more per game in the competition since the Austrian took charge.
● Leicester’s Ayoze Pérez has scored more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has vs any other side in the competition (7), including netting two hat-tricks against them in the competition.
● Southampton’s Tino Livramento has made more progressive carries of 10+ metres than any other full back in the Premier League this season (71). Indeed, the 19-year-old leads all full backs in the competition this term for total progression upfield from carries (1,666 metres).
● Patson Daka is Leicester’s highest scoring player away from home in all competitions this season (4), with all four of his goals coming in the same match – a 4-3 victory at Spartak Moscow in the Europa League.


WATFORD V CHELSEA

7.30pm It’s very close between Chelsea and Man City tonight as to who starts the shortest price of the night – Chelsea are 1.38 at the time of writing while Man City are 1.37 away to Aston Villa later. Watford have been playing some nice football recently. They managed wins against Everton and Manchester United, playing OK against Southampton and Arsenal, and then played very well against Leicester at the weekend but end up losing 4-2 while creating an xG of 3.05. They have pretty good momentum, but they are still conceding too many goals. That’s going to be a massive problem when facing a side like Chelsea – even in the 1-1 draw against Manchester United at the weekend Chelsea finished with an xG of 2.86 and should have won the game. They bossed the first half and should have lead at the break, and that was where they should have won the game. They still sit top of the table however, but now they only have a one point lead over Manchester City.

Although Chelsea have been fantastic this season, I would be a little worried that they have played Liverpool, Man City and now Man United without winning. They should have beaten United, but they were played off the pitch by Liverpool and Man City. The one big thing they have in their favour is that they are putting the smaller sides to the sword and not dropping silly points. That’s bad news for Watford, and Chelsea should win here. The 1.38 is definitely worth putting in a BETDAQ Multiple tonight, but for a single bet here I prefer over 2.5 goals at 1.77. Watford have been playing such an open game recently I can see plenty of chances in this game, and they have also been creating a lot themselves so they could possibly score.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatche

MATCH STATS

● Watford have lost seven of their last eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea, winning the other 4-1 in February 2018. The Hornets have conceded 21 goals in these eight games (2.6 per game).
● Chelsea have won their last two away league games against Watford, but have never won three in a row at Vicarage Road before.
● Since a goalless draw in February 2016, there has been 33 goals scored in eight Premier League games between Watford (12 goals) and Chelsea (21), at an average of 4.1 per game.
● Watford won their last Premier League game on a Wednesday, beating Wolves 2-1 in January 2020. The Hornets had never previously won a Premier League match on this day before that (D4 L12).
● Chelsea haven’t won any of their last five Premier League games played on a Wednesday (D2 L3). The Blues last had a longer winless run on a specific weekday between November 2010 and February 2011 (6 games on Sundays).
● Watford haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 23 Premier League matches, the longest current run of any team, and have shipped 45 goals in these games since a 3-0 win over Liverpool in February 2020.
● Chelsea have won their last four Premier League away games by an aggregate score of 10-0. They last won more consecutively on the road without conceding in the competition between September and December 2008, a run of six under Felipe Scolari.
● Managers who have previously taken charge of Chelsea in the Premier League have won just six of their 37 games in the competition against the Blues (D8 L23). Watford boss Claudio Ranieri did so with Leicester in December 2015, and he could become the first former Chelsea manager to beat them with two different clubs in the competition.
● Jorginho has scored 15 Premier League goals for Chelsea, with 13 of those coming from the penalty spot – that ratio of 87% of his goals coming from penalties is the highest in Premier League history of any player to have scored at least 10 goals in the competition.
● Claudio Ranieri’s six Premier League games in charge of Watford have so far seen 25 goals scored (11 for, 14 against), the most in a manager’s first six games in charge of a club since Frank Lampard at Chelsea (also 25).


WEST HAM V BRIGHTON

7.30pm Another very interesting fixture here. West Ham came up short away to Manchester City at the weekend, but you’d have to expect that even with The Hammers having an excellent season. That’s two losses in a row now though in the Premier League, and Arsenal have joined them on points. Given the troubles of Spurs and Manchester United this season there is no need for West Ham to hit the panic button – they can’t be expected to beat the likes of Manchester City – and they are still top four contenders. To keep those hopes alive however they need to win games like this, and Brighton will be a good test. I have to say after watching Brighton play Leeds on Saturday I found it remarkable that the home fans boo’d a 0-0 draw. Brighton manager Graham Potter didn’t like it, and was possibly over the top in his criticism to the media after; it’ll be interesting to see how the fans react to that! However in this case the fans are totally in the wrong. Brighton are sitting in the top half of the table, and they actually played very well against Leeds and should have won the game,

Onto tonight, and these two sides have played out three draws in the last three meetings. We’ve had a 3-3, 2-2 and 1-1 so it’s quite obvious this game is going to be 0-0 and no further research is required! If only it was that easy..! I actually like Both Teams To Score here at 1.88. I feel West Ham are very fairly priced at around 2.0 mark and the goals option offers more value here. Both sides like to play an open and attacking game, so I can see this game being quite open. Neither are the type to sit back either if they went behind. Brighton have been creating some good chances lately and you can’t knock West Ham this season. We could have a very entertaining game here, and I’m surprised to see Both Teams To Score trading as big as 1.88.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWhubha

MATCH STATS

● Each of the last five Premier League meetings between West Ham and Brighton have finished level. Only two fixtures in the competition’s history have had longer runs of consecutive draws – Aston Villa vs West Ham (7 between 1998 and 2001) and Birmingham vs Liverpool (7 between 2005 and 2010).
● Brighton have never lost in eight Premier League meetings with West Ham (W3 D5), the most a side has faced the Hammers without defeat in the competition.
● West Ham are unbeaten in their last seven midweek (Tue, Wed, Thu) Premier League games (W4 D3), winning each of the last four in a row. The Hammers had lost nine of their previous 11 such games prior to this run (W2).
● Having failed to win any of their first 11 Premier League games played on Wednesdays (D6 L5), Brighton won their last such match on this day, beating Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield in February.
● Brighton have scored 25 goals in their 24 Premier League games away against London sides, with 40% of these coming in their four visits to West Ham (10/25).
● Only Newcastle (13) are on a longer winless run than Brighton of all teams in the Premier League (8 games), though they’ve gone on to lose just two of those (D6). Over these eight games, Brighton have had more shots than their opponents (99-94) and have a higher expected goals for total than their xG against (9.6 for, 8.9 against).
● West Ham United have lost their last two Premier League matches, not losing more consecutively since a three-game losing between March and June 2020, one of only two previous instances the Hammers have lost three in a row under David Moyes (also in March 2018).
● 12.1% of Brighton’s Premier League games have finished 0-0 (20/165), the highest percentage of games to finish goalless in the competition’s history.
● This will be David Moyes’ 50th Premier League home game in charge of West Ham (W22 D14 L13), only the third manager to reach that particular milestone for the Hammers in the competition, after Harry Redknapp and Sam Allardyce. The Hammers average 1.63 goals per Premier League home game under the Scotsman, their best such ratio under any manager in the competition.
● Since the start of last season, Brighton striker Neal Maupay (-5.9) is one of only two players in the Premier League who have scored at least five fewer goals than their expected goals tally, along with Chelsea’s Timo Werner. Maupay has netted 12 goals in the competition in this period, despite having an expected goals total of 17.9.


WOLVES V BURNLEY

7.30pm We finish the 7-30pm games with Wolves hosting Burnley. As Newcastle and Norwich played each other on Tuesday night along with Leeds also playing, all eyes are on Burnley here to see what they can do. Burnley have now gone four games unbeaten in the Premier League, but they have been pretty lucky. They deserved to beat Brentford at home, but they could have easily lost to Southampton, Chelsea and Crystal Palace at the weekend too. I noted last weekend that they have been creating much more in front of goal this season, but that has also come at a cost of conceding chances. They conceded an xG of 2.13, 3.22 and 2.14 in those three draws and their highest xG was 1.38 with the other two under 1. Wolves have been having a good season and they can definitely challenge for a Europa League spot, but they have put in two worrying performances recently. They barely created anything away to Norwich at the weekend and then also created a very low xG away to Crystal Palace in a 2-0 loss recently.

Perhaps the key to Wolves this season will be their home form. Recently their home and away games have been night and day. Since losing their first three games here, and they were very unlucky to lose against Manchester United and Spurs, they have won their last three games. Their last three away performances have been very different, and indeed very poor. I feel Burnley can be competitive here and they do come into the game with confidence, but it’s all about the odds here and Wolves are too big at 1.94. The xG figures just highlight how many chances Burnley have been conceding recently and that they have been lucky with results. Add that to the fact Wolves have been playing well at home and I feel this is an ideal time to back Wolves. It’s not quite a Max Bet, but it’s a very confident one.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Wolves to beat Burnley at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolbur

MATCH STATS

● After winning seven consecutive top-flight games against Burnley between 1974 and 2018, Wolves are winless in their last five Premier League games against the Clarets (D2 L3).
● Burnley did the league double over Wolves last season – they’ve not won more consecutively against them in the league since a run of four straight victories between 1912 and 1931.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have won four of their five Premier League home games on a Wednesday, losing the other.
● Burnley have won four of their last five Premier League away games played on Wednesdays (D1). The Clarets had lost their first three such games in the competition.
● Wolves have won each of their last three Premier League home games, last winning four in a row in the top-flight at Molineux in March/April 1975.
● Burnley are without a win away from home in the Premier League this season (D3 L3), with no side picking up fewer points on the road in the competition than the Clarets this term.
● Burnley have only won four of their last 27 Premier League matches (D10 L13), although one of those wins was away at Wolves in April, a 4-0 victory that was their biggest away top-flight win since 1965 against Sunderland (also 4-0).
● In the seven Premier League games in which Adama Traoré has started this season, Wolves average 14.1 shots per game, compared to just 7.7 when the Spaniard doesn’t start. However, Wolves have just won just two of the seven games Traoré has started (29%), compared to four of the six he hasn’t (67%).
● No side has scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than Wolves (5). Raúl Jiménez has been directly involved in 80% of Wolves’ goals at Molineux so far this season (2 goals, 2 assists).
● Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored five goals in his last three Premier League appearances against Wolves, netting a hat-trick (and assisting the other) in the Clarets’ 4-0 win in this exact fixture last season.


ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY

8.15pm We have two big favourites to finish the evening, and we start the late games with Aston Villa hosting Manchester City. It was a good weekend for City as they moved to within one point of Chelsea at the top of the table, and they have a one point advantage over Liverpool at the moment. On paper, this should be a one way traffic win for City who are much better than this Aston Villa side. However, Villa come into the game on a high with two wins from two games and have a new manager Steven Gerrard who will be easy to get behind for a lot of the fans. He’s a very popular appointment and it’s easy for Aston Villa to continue their good momentum. There is that factor, but if you look at the bare stats from the two performances you can see that Villa were very lucky to win both games. They actually finished the games with xG figures of 0.83 and 0.45. Gerrard hasn’t solved the issues of creating a lot of chances, but to be fair he was never going to fix things that quick.

Aston Villa haven’t had many impressive xG figures since selling Jack Grealish, and you can really see just how important he was to their midfield. I can see them struggling again pretty soon, but you can’t knock the instant impact of a new manager who brings new life into the stadium. It’s hard to see anything bar a City win here, but I expect Villa to try and keep things as tight as possible here. Their last two games have had goals in them, but they have actually been very boring games. City at 1.37 is a bet for any BETDAQ Multiple, but I expect them to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win rather than blow Villa away who will be quite negative with their tactics. This is a game for small stakes in my opinion, but under 2.5 goals looks the value bet at 2.42.

The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAstmci

MATCH STATS

● Aston Villa have lost 12 of their last 14 Premier League meetings with Manchester City (W1 D1), conceding 39 goals against the Citizens in these games (2.8 per game).
● Manchester City have won 10 of their last 11 meetings with Aston Villa in all competitions (D1) since a 3-2 loss at Villa Park in September 2013.
● Aston Villa have lost 13 of their last 14 Premier League games against reigning champions, though they did beat Liverpool 7-2 at Villa Park last season. The last time they won consecutive home league games against the reigning top-flight champions was in April/December 1976 (vs Derby and Liverpool).
● Aston Villa won just one of their eight midweek (Tue, Wed, Thu) Premier League games last season (12.5%), beating Spurs 2-1 in May. In the 2019-20 campaign, the Villans won 44.4% of their midweek league games (W4 D3 L2).
● Manchester City have won each of their last 15 Premier League games played on a Wednesday, scoring 36 goals and conceding just six. Only Liverpool (21 on Saturdays between 2018 and 2020) and Man City themselves (17 on Saturdays between 2017 and 2018) have had longer winning runs on a specific day of the week in the competition.
● 14 of Aston Villa’s 18 Premier League goals this season have come in the second half of games (78%), with six of those strikes coming in the final 10 minutes – including three of their four so far under Steven Gerrard.
● Aston Villa have won both of their Premier League games under Steven Gerrard so far – in the club’s history, no manager has won either their first three top-flight games, or first three games in all competitions in charge of the Villans.
● Ashley Young registered his 42nd Premier League assist for Aston Villa in their win over Crystal Palace, a record for the club in Premier League history. He has assisted in his last two Premier League appearances, and at 36 years and 145 days on the day of this game, he would become the oldest Englishman to assist in three consecutive games, breaking Chris Waddle’s record from 1997 (36y 126d).
● Man City boss Pep Guardiola has lost just three of his 64 Premier League games against English managers (W56 D5), with those defeats coming against Roy Hodgson (December 2018), Frank Lampard (June 2020) and Graham Potter (May 2021). Steven Gerrard will be the 19th different English manager he’s faced in the competition, only failing to win his first meeting against two of the previous 18 – who both have the first name Steve (Agnew and Bruce).
● Ilkay Gündogan both scored and assisted for Manchester City in their 2-1 win over West Ham, the first time he’d done both in a Premier League game since September 2018 against Cardiff City. He has created 19 chances for City in the Premier League this season, a tally only Jack Grealish can better (26).


EVERTON V LIVERPOOL

8.15pm The Premier League have saved the best for last as we finish Wednesday night with the Merseyside Derby! Although there has been a huge gulf in class between the sides in recent years, Liverpool actually come into the game without a win in the last three meetings. Everton won the last meeting at Anfield to break an incredible run over 11 years without a win! Although Liverpool are very much expected to win and they have been excellent this season, I don’t see the 1.42 offering much value tonight. I would much prefer to back Chelsea or Manchester City at similar odds. Liverpool will more than likely outclass Everton, but they are going to have a tough night ahead of them and the 1.42 looks on the short side. That being said, Everton arrive into this fixture in terrible form. They’ve gone seven Premier League games without a win but they haven’t had a reasonably tough fixture list. That’s not a positive when you have to play Liverpool here though!

Everton started the season pretty strongly, however they dropped down to 14th after losing to Brentford at the weekend. Their drop has been so dramatic that if they don’t pick up a couple of results in this busy run to Christmas they could be near the relegation zone which would be unthinkable for a club like Everton. Liverpool come into this game in superb form, and there’s nothing much in the stats that says Everton can stop them here. I’m happy to avoid backing Liverpool at 1.42 in a big Derby like this, but they really should be winning. Everton have gone three games without scoring and I feel they will set up very negatively here and with Liverpool having the ball for most of the game, I don’t see Everton scoring. Both Teams Not To Score is 2.07 and that looks the best value option in my opinion.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.07 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEveliv

MATCH STATS

● Everton won 2-0 in their last Premier League game against Liverpool, ending a 20-game winless run against them in the competition. They’ve not won back-to-back league Merseyside derbies since beating them in both meetings in the 1984-85 campaign.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League away games against Everton, since a 2-0 loss in October 2010. However, eight of their last nine such visits have finished level, including each of the last four in a row.
● In Premier League history, Everton vs Liverpool has seen more red cards (22) and been drawn more often (24) than any other fixture. The Merseyside derby has also seen more 90th-minute winning goals than any other match in the competition, with all of these being scored by Liverpool – Ronny Rosenthal (1993), Gary McAllister (2001), Dirk Kuyt (2007), Sadio Mané (2016) and Divock Origi (2018).
● Everton have only lost one of their last 13 midweek (Tue, Wed, Thu) Premier League games (W7 D5), going down 3-1 against Manchester City in February last season.
● Liverpool have scored at least twice in each of their last 17 games in all competitions, the joint-longest such run in history by an English top-flight side (level with Sunderland in 1927).
● Liverpool have won four Premier League games by 4+ goals this season – twice as many as they managed in the whole of last season (2), and already one more than they did in their title winning season of 2019-20 (3).
● Liverpool lost their last away league game 3-2 at West Ham, but haven’t lost consecutive Premier League games on the road since February 2017 (vs Hull and Leicester). However, the Reds have scored at least twice in each of their last nine Premier League away games, and could become just the second team to do so in 10 consecutive games in the competition after Manchester United (11 between June-December 2020).
● Everton manager Rafael Benítez has won just one of his 10 Premier League games against sides he’s previously managed (D3 L6), beating Chelsea 3-0 with Newcastle in May 2018. Meanwhile, former Liverpool managers have lost 13 of their last 14 Premier League games against the Reds, with Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester winning 3-1 last season in the other.
● Only Mohamed Salah (11) has scored more Premier League goals for Liverpool than Diogo Jota this season (7), with the Portuguese forward bagging eight goals in his last 11 starts in the competition for the Reds.
● Mohamed Salah has either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last six away games in the Premier League (7 goals, 5 assists). No Liverpool player has ever registered a goal involvement in seven consecutive away appearances in the competition before.


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