FRIDAY IN EUROPE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Friday’s matches between HERTHA BERLIN v BOCHUM and GETAFE v LEVANTE both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
HERTHA BERLIN V BOCHUM
7.30pm We’ve had some enjoyable Cup action from Europe this week, but the big leagues finally return for Friday Night Football! As is our usual slot on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, we have one game from the Bundesliga and one from La Liga. We start in the Bundesliga with Hertha Berlin hosting Bochum. While this might be a fixture most casual football fans just glance past, it’s actually quite a big game for both sides. They are just on the edge of being dragged into a relegation fight, and while neither club will be too worried, they aren’t far enough away to be comfortable. Hertha Berlin are only three points off the bottom three with Bochum a lot more comfortable with a five point cushion. Bochum have impressed me this season with their adjustment to life in the Bundesliga – I felt they would a lot closer to the bottom of the table but their home form has been very good. They have had major issues away from home though, and that’s obviously a big factor here.
Bochum have netted just six points away from home this season from ten games, and they are second bottom in the away table – only ahead of Greuther Furth who just haven’t been good enough for the Bundesliga. Hertha Berlin haven’t been great by any means this season, but given the away form of Bochum they will see this as a good opportunity for three points and jumping ahead of Bochum in the table. The only issue I have is they are pretty short at 2.3 and they come into this game in woeful form. The winter break might have come at a good time for them, but even ignoring Bayern Munich hammering them, they have conceded xG figures like 2.11, 1.81, 1.81 (again!) and 2.77 recently. That’s a lot of chances to be giving away, and you can see why they are only three points off the bottom three. I don’t really fancy supporting Bochum here however given their away record, and I feel the best value option is over 2.5 goals at 2.08. I think it’s wise to stay away from the match odds market here, and both sides are pretty average at the back. Given all those chances Hertha Berlin have been giving away, we’re bound to see an open game here and I would have the overs/unders prices the other way around.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQHerBoc
GETAFE V LEVANTE
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the evening with a massive game towards the bottom of the table as Getafe host Levante. I have to say, it’s very difficult to make the case that a side that only has 11 points from 21 games and is nailed to the bottom of the table have been unlucky, but the xG table actually puts Levante in 12th – safely in mid-table. If they can hold onto their players after going down this season, they should bounce back up. The xG table obviously shows that they haven’t been as bad as they look in the table, but when you’re nailed to the bottom like they are it becomes a morale issue after a while doesn’t it. Their latest game against Cadiz basically summed up their season – they lost 2-0 at home but created a bigger xG than Cadiz. Their recent run has probably put the nail in their coffin, and perhaps a win against Cadiz would have put them back in the mix but that’s life. You have to view this game as another chance for them to pick up points given Getafe are in the relegation fight too, but they have put together a fantastic run of results recently. They have shot up the table from looking like they were going down, and they start the weekend four points ahead of the bottom three.
While Getafe have put a good run of results together, their performances haven’t been impressive. They have been lucky at times – for example they picked up a 0-0 draw against Real Sociedad despite conceding an xG of nearly four times what they created. Although they were also lucky to beat Real Madrid, they actually did very well to hold Real to an xG of only 0.89 which you have to give them credit for. When you put everything together we should have a pretty close game. I know a lot of people will just write off Levante because of their position in the table, but as I said they haven’t been that bad. I feel Getafe are too short at 2.16 and fully expect a closer game than the odds reflect. From a value point of view in what should be a close game I’m happy to lay the home side.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Getafe to beat Levante at 2.16 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange!
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQGetLev