SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between UNION BERLIN v HERTHA BERLIN, DORTMUND v BAYER LEVERKUSEN and CLERMONT v PSG all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UNION BERLIN V HERTHA BERLIN
2.30pm It’s great to have European football back and we have a full day of Bundesliga action to enjoy today, along with Ligue 1 games on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have a very busy afternoon in the Bundesliga with five games kicking off at 2-30pm, and the highlight fixture is the Berlin Derby! It’s fair to say that this isn’t a heated derby; there is a healthy rivalries but it’s not the hatred we see in other Derbies around the world. There has been a huge gap in terms of quality between the sides in recent years too – Union finished in 7th in 2020/21 while Hertha finished down in 14th while then in 2021/22 the gap got even bigger – Union managed to take 5th spot and Hertha Berlin had to survive a regelation playoff as they finished in 16th. Clearly Hertha will be hoping to improve on that finish, but their stats were very poor last season. I know they took a lot of headlines by the goals that they conceded, but their main issue was going forward – they created so little in a high scoring league that they were bound to always have major issues getting results. A lot of Bundesliga clubs will concede a lot of goals, just because it’s an open league, but to score on average 1.1 goals per game is very poor.
Union Berlin were a top class side last season. They very nearly knocked RB Leipzig out of the top four and got into the Champions League too. They were impressive going forward and at the back, and I’d be very surprised if they couldn’t start the season with a win here. I know Derbies always tend to be close affair, and the fans make it a great occasion but there is a huge gulf in class between the sides here. I’d have Union Berlin much shorter than their current 1.83, and they are worth a confident bet at the odds. It’s been two seasons now that Hertha Berlin have been involved in a relegation battle, and their squad hasn’t changed massively in terms of quality. You can clearly see that Union Berlin are an improving side and they were able to mix it with the top sides last season too. I’d be surprised if we don’t see a home win here.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Union Berlin to beat Hertha Berlin at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UniHer
DORTMUND V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
5.30pm Next we stay in the Bundesliga for the evening game as Dortmund host Bayer Leverkusen. This is definitely the highlight fixture of the day, even the weekend in Europe to be honest. These two finished second and third last season and they are the main teams “chasing” Bayern Munich – if you could call chasing being nearly ten points behind! Dortmund have to start life without Erling Haaland too, and you don’t need me to tell you that is a huge setback. It will be interesting to see how they cope without their star man at the start of the season – they basically can’t afford to drop silly points at the start of the season if they are even going to get close to Bayern Munich. Bayer Leverkusen will fancy their chances here too – there wasn’t much between the sides last season, and now Dortmund are a little weaker. The last two meetings between the sides in the Bundesliga have been exceptionally entertaining with seven goals in each game! Dortmund won 4-3 and then Bayer Leverkusen won 5-2 – hopefully we see more of the same here! Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.4 at the time of writing, so the market is heavily expecting goals.
Both Teams To Score is open trading around the 1.4 mark, and I think it’s fair to say we’re going to see a very open game here. These two sides just appear to gel well together, and it’s going to be a very end-to-end game. I have to say I expected to see a much more open market when I clicked into the match odds and was surprised to see Dortmund trading as short as 2.1. As I said above, there wasn’t much between the sides last season and now Dortmund are weaker without Haaland. Bayer Leverkusen averaged nearly three goals per Bundesliga game, and although they performed above their xG which was closer to two goals per game, it really does highlight how good they are going forward. This is going to be a close game, and Bayer Leverkusen can make it much closer than odds of 2.1 suggest on Dortmund. From a value point of view, I’m very happy with the home lay here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Dortmund to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorBay
CLERMONT V PSG
8pm We move over to Ligue 1 in France to finish Saturday as Clermont host the Champions PSG. It’s been a relatively quiet summer for PSG by their standards. One wonders how they could top last summer really! They have changed their manager and that is the big news – although they ran away with the title last season, it always looked like Mauricio Pochettino never fitted at PSG. For starters he ended up losing the title in his first season, and then he never looked happy last season – the French media were always “at him” for “not winning easily enough” and the writing was probably on the wall for a while there. It will be interesting to see how the players perform under Christophe Galtier – and especially Messi who was very poor last season. It definitely looked to me like Messi was just going through the motions last season, and I’ll be keeping a keen eye on his performance levels this season. It must be hard for him to get motivated to beat these average French sides but at the end of the day he doesn’t want to be called a flop outside of Barcelona either – personal pride has to kick in.
The market is fully expecting an easy PSG win here with the away side trading as short as 1.3 here. I don’t think there’s even a question of them winning the title this season; the question is by how far to be honest. Clermont were in a relegation battle last season, and there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here. Clermont went into the final day safe, but there was only four points between them and the 18th place side by the final game. They conceded close to two goals per game in Ligue 1 last season, but they were a little unlucky to be fair – their xG was lower at 1.3 but they didn’t create as much as they conceded, and that’s why they are down the bottom of the table. I feel this is a case of how many goals PSG will score rather than will they win, and I like them to cover the 1.5 goal handicap at 1.77. Morale will be very high with the new manager, and I can see them starting the season in flying form – I’m expecting an easy win here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win PSG -1.5 goals to beat Clermont at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ClePsg